Thema Geldpolitik

Floating with a Load of FX Debt?

Countries with de jure floating exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to allow their currencies to float freely in practice. One reason why countries may wish to limit exchange rate volatility is potential negative balance sheet effects due to currency mismatches on the balance sheets of firms and households. In this paper, we show in a sample of 15 emerging market economies that countries with ...

Understanding the Great Recession

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does ...

Über die Krise zur Einheit? 25 Jahre monetärer Integrationsprozess in Europa

Am 1. Juli 1990 wurde mit dem Wegfall der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen in der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft die erste Stufe auf dem Weg zum Euro genommen. Der Weg dorthin war auch durch einen Kompromiss zwischen zwei Denkschulen gekennzeichnet – derjenigen, die davon ausging, dass der Schaffung der Zentralbank die weitergehende ökonomische Konvergenz und politische Integration folgen würde, und ...

A Stronger Union through Crisis? 25 Years of Monetary Integration in Europe

On July 1, 1990, when capital controls in the European Economic Community were removed, the path was paved for the introduction of the euro. This path was marked by a compromise between two schools of thought—those who assumed that the creation of the European Central Bank would be followed by greater economic convergence and political integration, and those who saw the single currency as the coronation ...

Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis

Quantitative Easing - What Are the Side Effects on Income and Wealth Distribution: In-Depth Analysis

Monetary Policy and the Risk-Taking Channel

Before the 2007 crisis, the trade-off between output and inflation played a leading role in the discussion of monetary policy. Instead, issues relating to financial stability played a less pronounced role in shaping the stance of monetary policy andwere limited to asset price dynamics. This Round-Up argues that the great interest that emerged after the 2007 crisis in the effects of monetary policy ...

The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can "lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all ...

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand

This paper investigates the usefulness of the money demand relationship in times of unconventional monetary policies by cointegration methods. Our empirical evidence shows the existence of stable long run money demand functions even in the period of interest rates near the zero bound, both for the US economy and the euro area. Evidence is based on standard monetary aggregates, i.e. MZM for the US and ...

The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

The Russian economy is tightly woven into the global economy, and is therefore highly dependent on the development of exchange rates. Since 2014, the ruble has fallen by more than 50 percent against the US dollar. The de¬valuation goes hand in hand with the Western sanctions that were imposed due to the political tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, the decline in oil prices may also ...