Thema Geldpolitik

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Experiencing Robust Growth; Germany’s Recovery Is Delayed Further

The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...

DIW-Konjunkturprognose: Weltwirtschaft wächst robust – Deutschlands Erholung verzögert sich weiter

Die noch erhöhte Inflation sowie die schwache Binnen- und Auslandsnachfrage, die die deutsche Wirtschaftsleistung schon im vergangenen Jahr belastet haben, werden wohl auch das laufende erste Quartal im Minus enden lassen. Die in Deutschland und im gesamten Euroraum deutlich sinkende Inflation, die sich wieder dem Zwei-Prozent-Ziel der Europäischen Zentralbank annähert, lässt eine Zinswende im Frühsommer ...

Der private Konsum wird die Wirtschaft ab dem zweiten Quartal wieder nach vorne bringen: Interview

Die EZB sollte die Kehrtwende vollziehen: Kommentar

Financial Repression in General Equilibrium: The Case of the United States, 1948–1974

Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...

Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany

We investigate how internal distribution motives can affect the implementation of an important macroeconomic policy: capital controls. To do this, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations, which took place under strict capital controls in 1930s Germany, providing a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, ...

Global Risk and the Dollar

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets

We investigate the role of monetary policy in stock price misalignments and explore whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing as suggested by the proponents of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy. Decomposing stock prices into expected excess dividends, an equity risk premium, and a mispricing component, we find that prices fall more strongly in response to an increase in the ...

Kluge Schulden heute sind der Wohlstand von morgen

Marcel Fratzscher hält es für falsch, starr an der Schuldenbremse festzuhalten. Dass Sparen gut und Schulden schlecht sind, sei ein grundlegendes deutsches Missverständnis. Aufklärung ist gefragt. Zwei von drei Deutschen finden die Schuldenbremse gut und wollen an ihr festhalten – so eine neue Umfrage im Auftrag des „Spiegels“. Es gibt wohl kaum eine Gesellschaft, in der es so tief in der Psyche verankert ...

The ECB should cut interest rates from the first quarter of 2024

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided today to keep the key interest rate constant. Here is a statement from Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin):