Thema Geldpolitik

Five Essays in Macroeconomics

Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian models (HANK)---which replace the representative household by a whole distribution of households---are the about to become the new state-off-the-art model of modern monetary economics because they allow for more realistic consumption patterns of households and a rich description of income and wealth distributions. This PhD thesis contributes to the ongoing advancements ...

Where Do They Care? The ECB in the Media and Inflation Expectations

This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...

Global Risk and the Dollar

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

Zunehmende Bereitschaft für Devisenmarktinterventionen zeigt Wandel der internationalen Finanzarchitektur

Die Phase zunehmender Globalisierung scheint mit der weltweiten Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 zu Ende gegangen sein, was sich nicht nur im sinkenden Welthandel relativ zur Wertschöpfung ausdrückt. Auch in der internationalen Finanzarchitektur ist dieser Trend zu beobachten. Hier zeigt er sich in der zunehmenden Bereitschaft, mit Devisenmarktinterventionen auf Wechselkurse einzuwirken. Immer mehr Länder ...

Bereitschaft zu Devisenmarktinterventionen ist in den letzten 20 Jahren gestiegen: Interview

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Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy

This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB’s ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Third, we empirically document that, to optimally fulfill its primary mandate, ...

Weather-Related Disasters and Inflation in the Euro Area

This article investigates the impact of weather-related disasters on inflation in the euro area over the period 1996–2021. Using a panel structural vector autoregression approach, we explore whether weather-related disasters have a significant and persistent effect on inflation, as well as the role that demand-side and supply-side channels play as drivers of inflation. We also analyse the heterogeneous ...

Geldpolitik in Zeiten der Energiepreiskrise: EZB hätte Inflation frühzeitiger eindämmen können

In der Zeit nach der Corona-Pandemie sah sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) einem beispiellosen Anstieg der Energiepreise gegenüber. Dieser führte zu einer Konsumentenpreisinflation im Euroraum von zeitweise über zehn Prozent, weit über dem EZB-Inflationsziel von zwei Prozent. Gleichzeitig war die Wirtschaft im Euroraum von einer Rezession bedroht, was einen Zielkonflikt zwischen Konjunkturstabilisierung ...

Active or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy during High Inflation

We investigate the interplay of the monetary–fiscal policy mix during times of crisis by drawing insights from the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. We use a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to estimate a DSGE model with three distinct monetary/fiscal policy regimes. We show that, in such a model, SMC outperforms standard sampling algorithms because it is better suited to deal with multimodal ...