The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer ...
Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat sich zu Jahresbeginn berappelt und besser entwickelt als zunächst erwartet. Kräftig gestiegene Bauinvestitionen – wenngleich aufgrund des milden Winterwetters eher ein Strohfeuer – und starke Warenexporte halfen ihr auf die Beine und konnten die enttäuschende Entwicklung des privaten Konsums überdecken. Dieser war überraschend gesunken. Seitdem hellt sich die Kauflaune aber ...
This paper investigates the heterogeneous responses of exporters to policy reforms undertaken by the People’s Bank of China to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB). Using detailed customs data from France for the initial years of these reforms (2011-2017), it documents several novel stylized facts on RMB adoption, highlighting both the growth and extreme skewness in RMB’s uptake across firms and varieties. ...
In this paper, we model a fossil fuel embargo as a temporary quantity constraint on fossil fuel imports and wecompare the impact with the effect of a fossil fuel price shock. We show that while both shocks have similar responses of output and inflation, they differ with respect to the reaction of other macroeconomic components,such as consumption, exports and the trade balance. In particular, an embargo ...
Exploiting the heteroscedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an ...
