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Thema Geldpolitik

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401 Ergebnisse, ab 371
Diskussionspapiere 1382 / 2014

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Money Demand

This paper investigates the usefulness of the money demand relationship in times of unconventional monetary policies by cointegration methods. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function is presented both for the US and the euro area. Results are based on standard monetary aggregates, i.e. MZM for the US and M3 in case of the euro area. The ...

2014| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
DIW Economic Bulletin 5 / 2014

Weak Inflation and Threat of Deflation in the Euro Area: Limits of Conventional Monetary Policy

Inflation in the euro area has been below the European Central Bank's target for almost a year now and it is also expected to remain at a very low level in the near future. On the one hand, such a low level of inflation is not in line with the ECB's objective. On the other hand, there is the risk that this situation will lead to a slide into deflation. In view of the ECB's historically low policy rates, ...

2014| Kerstin Bernoth, Marcel Fratzscher, Philipp König
Diskussionspapiere 1395 / 2014

Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis

This paper analyses the long-memory properties of both the conditional mean and variance of UK real GDP over the period 1851-2013 by estimating a multivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH model (with the unemployment rate and inflation as explanatory variables). The results suggest that this series is non-stationary and non-mean-reverting, the null hypotheses of I(0), I(1) and I(2) being rejected in favour of fractional ...

2014| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marinko Skare
Monographien

Sovereign Risk, Interbank Freezes, and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper studies the bank-sovereign link in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with strategic default on public debt. Heterogeneous banks give rise to an interbank market where government bonds are used as collateral. A default penalty arises from a breakdown of interbank intermediation that induces a credit crunch. Government borrowing under limited commitment is costly ex ante as bank ...

Berlin: Freie Univ. Berlin, FB Wirtschaftswiss., 2014, 56 S.
(Discussion Paper / School of Business & Economics ; 2014,35)
| Philipp Engler, Christoph Große Steffen
Monographien

On the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in the Euro Area

This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques accounting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the evidence is quite fragile for public and private investment flows. They enter a long run relationship only after ...

Bonn: IZA, 2014, 18 S.
(Discussion Paper Series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 8002)
| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
Diskussionspapiere 1436 / 2014

Sovereign Risk, Interbank Freezes, and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper studies the bank-sovereign link in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with strategic default on public debt. Heterogeneous banks give rise to an interbank market where government bonds are used as collateral. A default penalty arises from a breakdown of interbank intermediation that induces a credit crunch. Government borrowing under limited commitment is costly ex ante as bank ...

2014| Philipp Engler, Christoph Große Steffen
Diskussionspapiere 1365 / 2014

On the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in the Euro Area

This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques accounting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the evidence is quite fragile for public and private investment flows. They enter a long run relationship only after ...

2014| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
DIW Wochenbericht 12 / 2014

Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik

Die Inflationsrate im Euroraum liegt seit knapp einem Jahr unterhalb der von der Europäischen Zentralbank angestrebten Zielmarke und wird voraussichtlich auch in der kommenden Zeit auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau verharren. Zum einen steht eine solch geringe Inflation nicht im Einklang mit der Zielsetzung der EZB, zum anderen besteht in dieser Situation die Gefahr, in eine Deflation abzurutschen. Angesichts ...

2014| Kerstin Bernoth, Marcel Fratzscher, Philipp König
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations ...

In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014), 2, S. 303-312 | Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
401 Ergebnisse, ab 371
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