The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets

Discussion Papers 1854, 62 S.

Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr

2020

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Abstract

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact persists for months. The signaling channel dominates the portfolio channel. Moreover, interest rates tend to fall in response to sales of the domestic currency, whereas stock prices of large (exporting) firms increase after devaluation of the domestic currency.

Lukas Menkhoff

Head of Department in the International Economics Department

Malte Rieth

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

Topics: Monetary policy



JEL-Classification: F31;F33;E58
Keywords: Foreign exchange intervention, structural VAR, exchange rates, interest rates, stock prices

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