Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science
Volker Daniel, Lucas ter Steege
In: Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020), 101305, 18 S.
A regime shift toward increased inﬂation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recov- ery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inﬂation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inﬂa- tion expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inﬂation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregres- sion model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not ﬁnd a shift to increased expected inﬂation. This recovery was diﬀerent, and its causes lie elsewhere.
Keywords: Inﬂation expectations, Great Depression, Inﬂation forecasting, Regime change, Germany, Narrative evidence