Coal Phase-out in Germany: Implications and Policies for Affected Regions

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Pao-Yu Oei, Hauke Hermann, Philipp Herpich, Oliver Holtemöller, Benjamin Lünenbürger, Christoph Schult

In: Energy 196 (2020), 117004, 19 S.


The present study examines the consequences of the planned coal phase-out in Germany according tovarious phase-out pathways that differ in the ordering of power plant closures. Soft-linking an energysystem model with an input-output model and a regional macroeconomic model simulates the socio-economic effects of the phase-out in the lignite regions, as well as in the rest of Germany. The combi-nation of two economic models offers the advantage of considering the phase-out from different per-spectives and thus assessing the robustness of the results. The model results show that the lignite coalregions will exhibit losses in output, income and population, but a faster phase-out would lead to aquicker recovery. Migration to other areas in Germany and demographic changes will partiallycompensate for increasing unemployment, but support from federal policy is also necessary to supportstructural change in these regions.

Pao-Yu Oei

Research Associate in the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department

Keywords: Climate policy, Coal, Coal phase-out, Economy, Employment, Energy policy, Energy transition, Germany, Input-output analysis, Quantitative general equilibrium model, Transition
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