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Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021, S. 162-166

Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Sandra Pasch

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Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors while the manufacturing industries will lag behind in the short-term due to high raw material prices. In some emerging economies, in contrast, recently skyrocketing coronavirus rates and a lack of vaccine doses are likely to hinder recovery before the situation improves. Overall, the growth rate should increase in the second half of 2021 so that the outlook for the global economy remains nearly unchanged: DIW Berlin estimates growth of 6.7 percent for 2021 and growth of 4.9 percent for 2022. The USA, euro area, and China are delivering positive momentum to this growth, as they have remained spared from a further wave of the virus.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Head of Forecasting Department in the Macroeconomics Department

Guido Baldi

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

Hella Engerer

Research Associate in the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department

JEL-Classification: E32;E66;F01
Keywords: Business cycle forecast, economic outlook

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