German Economy Only Slowly Emerging from the Pandemic: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2021, S. 276-283

Marius Clemens, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt

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Abstract

The German economy is taking longer than expected to overcome the pandemic: It is likely to increase by only 2.1 percent in 2021 and capacities remain markedly underutilized. In addition, global supply bottlenecks are affecting German industry, resulting in stalled domestic production despite high demand. Following a profitable summer due to low case numbers and progress in the vaccination campaign, the personal services sector is weakening again as infection rates rise once more. If the supply bottlenecks are solved in 2022, industry should take off and the German economy should record powerful growth of 4.9 percent. Although inflation remains moderate in the underlying trend, higher oil prices and the return to the normal value-added tax are driving the rate up to 3.0 percent in 2021. These effects will no longer apply in 2022. Nevertheless, inflation remains somewhat elevated at around 2.0 percent, as rising production costs due to a shortage of intermediary goods are partly passed on.

Laura Pagenhardt

Research Associate in the Forecasting and Economic Policy Department

Marius Clemens

Research Associate in the Forecasting and Economic Policy Department

Simon Junker

Deputy Head of Department in the Forecasting and Economic Policy Department



JEL-Classification: E32;E66;F01
Keywords: Business cycle forecast, economic outlook
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18723/diw_dwr:2021-37-2

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