Knappes Gas – Optionen zur Verringerung der Deckungslücke in Deutschland

Abstract

In this article, we provide the results of a simple quantitative analysis of the potential remedies to reduce the supply gap in Germany that arises if Russia stops delivering natural gas. We take into account the supply potential of other suppliers, and combine this with an analysis of the additional supply potential by stopping electricity generation from natural gas. Moreover, we investigate the effect of minimum storage requirements. We find that a realistic expansion of supply by other providers, in particular Norway, combined with the temporary replacement of gas-fired power plants by coal-fired power plants and expansive storage filling to 90 % of storage capacity strongly reduces the winter supply gap. In summer months, the supply gap is even negative, indicating the potential to store even more for the winter. In other words, most of the natural gas consumption can be maintained even if Russia fails to supply to Germany. It is important that the temporary replacement of gas-fired power plants by coal-fired power plants is not accompanied by an expansion of the CO2 emission cap, in order to ensure emission neutrality of the measure. If the expansion of renewable generation capacities proceeds as planned in the German government’s „Easter Package“ of spring 2022, the increased use of coal-fired power plants can be temporary and the coal exit in 2030 can be maintained.