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Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth

In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15 (2023), 4, S. 217–248


We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months.

Malte Rieth

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

JEL-Classification: C43;H51;I12;I18;O15

Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)

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