This course aims to bring participants to the research frontier on how to estimate the causal effects of macroeconomic shocks, with a particular focus on monetary and fiscal policy. We will discuss how to: plausibly identify those shocks; best estimate their causal effects in finite samples; and finally use those shock causal effects for macroeconomic policy evaluation. The analysis throughout pushes the boundaries on how much we can say without committing to any explicit structural model of the macro-economy.
Students should ideally have some experience in (i) basic linear time series analysis and (ii) linearized structural macroeconomic modeling (both state-space and sequence-space). A list of preparatory readings will be distributed before the class.
Christian Wolf an Assistant Professor in the MIT Department of Economics, and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
His research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics, and time series econometrics.