Does Cognitive Reflection Relate to Preferences and Socioeconomic Outcomes?

Abstract

Previous studies report associations of cognitive reflection, the ability to avoid intuitive but potentially wrong decisions by switching to a contemplative mindset, with individual preferences, mostly relying on student samples and laboratory settings. We assess the association of cognitive reflection with preferences in the general population and real-world socioeconomic outcomes. Our preregistered study tests 16 hypotheses from the literature on the basis of randomly drawn population data and accounting for multiple hypothesis testing. We find that cognitive reflection is significantly associated with interpersonal trust and saving, and suggestively with labor income. We cannot confirm previously reported associations with risk and time preferences.