Forced marriage is a critical human rights violation. Challenges associated with estimating its prevalence hamper informed policy making and effective allocation of resources for victim support. This study employs a high-quality online access panel and the Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM) to estimate the prevalence of forced marriages in Germany. Using aggregated relational data and Bayesian models, we estimate a 95% credible interval of 11, 752 to 126, 170 individuals who are currently living in a forced marriage in the country. The median of the posterior distribution is 38, 945, with a median absolute deviation of about 22, 164. These figures substantially exceed previous estimates. The results call for urgent policy interventions, improved support services, and more sociological investigation. This study provides an empirical foundation for further research on forced marriage in Germany and offers a reference framework for estimating its prevalence in other countries and contexts.
work coauthored with Alexandra Orlova (DeZIM) and Niklas Harder (DeZIM)