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Kraftlose Konjunktur im ersten Halbjahr.
DIW Berlin: Im dritten Quartal zunehmender Einfluss der binnenwirtschaftlichen Kräfte

Press Release of August 14, 2002

In its current weekly report 33/2002, the DIW Berlin reports only a slight upward trend in overall economic performance in the second quarter of 2002, as was the case in the first quarter of this year. The seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product increased by 0.2%, which exceeded the previous year's level by 0.4%. The lack of stronger expansion is mainly attributable to private households, which, for the fourth successive quarter, reduced real consumption. The considerable decline in building investments also had a negative effect on the economy. Exports, however, increased further, although less dynamically than in the first quarter. The sharp decline in investment in new equipment bottomed out at the end of 2000, which also had a positive effect on the economy.
Since the beginning of the year, weak economic development has led to an accelerated reduction in jobs. Employment fell by 51,000 persons employed in the second quarter of 2002. Eastern Germany was more severely affected by job losses than western Germany.

The DIW Berlin expects only slow economic growth for the third quarter of 2002. However, positive developments in income triggered by collective pay bargaining and the slight increase in consumer prices could be indicators of a possible change in private consumption. All in all, the domestic economy is expected to have an increased impact throughout the third quarter of the year, whereas foreign stimuli are likely to become less important against the background of the waning growth in demand around the globe. Real gross domestic product could increase by 0.5% in the third quarter of the year; which would be a plus of 1% compared to the previous year.