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Polen im Aufwind - Budgetprobleme bleiben

Press Release of March 17, 2004

Poland’s gross domestic product will grow by about 4% this year and next. That is the finding in DIW Berlin’s current Wochenbericht 12/2004, which was written in cooperation with the Centre for Social and Economic Analysis (CASE) in Warsaw.
With a growth rate of 3.7% in real GDP in 2003 Poland has shown notable economic recovery after two years of largely stagnation. The revival is due firstly to the strong growth in exports, and secondly private consumption is still growing strongly. However, the development in investment is only moderate. The biggest uncertainty factor for future development is currently fiscal policy. If the present expenditure path is continued Poland is likely to exceed the upper limit set in its constitution of 60% of GDP for state indebtedness in the new few years. The same upper limit is set in the Maastricht Treaty as a condition for joining the currency union. The consolidation programme this will entail may well dampen growth for several years. Both the growth prospects for the next few years and the date when Poland joins the currency union therefore largely depend on the development in fiscal policy.