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Medium-Term Economic Development: Stable Growth and Big Surpluses in Public Budgets

Press Release of April 16, 2013

The German economy will experience significantly stronger growth up to 2017 than it has in the past five years. Economic growth will increasingly be driven by domestic demand, and job creation will continue. In the medium term, there will be increasing surpluses in public budgets; in 2017, these will reach almost 28 billion euros. At the beginning of the projection period - as in recent years - it is mainly social security contributions that will generate high surpluses. This situation will change in the medium term. Budget surpluses will increase steadily, even in economically adjusted terms, and the debt ratio will decrease significantly. This means an important milestone in fiscal consolidation has been achieved, but further action is needed. Towards the end of this decade, the effects of demographic change will start to be a burden on public finances. Looking at the emerging challenges, fiscal policy should use this healthy cash position to set a course today for higher potential growth in future. Spending on infrastructure and on research and education should be adopted as a priority.


    DIW-Wochenbericht 16/2013 (PDF, 439.05 KB)

    DIW-Wochenbericht 16/2013 als E-Book

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