DIW Roundup

74 results, from 21
DIW Roundup 110 / 2017

The Natural Rate of Interest and Secular Stagnation

In many advanced economies, there has been a declining trend in interest rates over the past thirty years. Since the financial crisis, interest rates have remained particularly low. Though a decrease in inflation explains part of the fall in nominal interest rates, there is also a clear downtrend in real interest rates. Against this backdrop, a debate has emerged over the factors that might have contributed ...

2017| Guido Baldi, Patrick Harms
DIW Roundup 109 / 2017

The Natural Rate of Interest II: Empirical Overview

The concept of the natural rate of interest (NRI) dates back to Wicksell (1898) and has since then been highly debated in the economic literature. In practice, estimates of the NRI can be employed as a versatile tool for macroeconomic analysis and are a core element within the popular neo-Wicksellian (or New-Keynesian) framework. The real rate gap, i.e. the difference between the actual interest rate ...

2017| Dmitry Chervyakov, Philipp König
DIW Roundup 108 / 2017

The Natural Rate of Interest I: Theory

The term natural (or neutral) real interest rate refers to the equilibrium value of the real interest rate. As this equilibrium is usually conceived as a situation where inflationary or deflationary pressures have abated, the natural real interest rate is a key concept for central banks seeking to stabilize the general price level or targeting the rate of inflation. The present roundup provides a brief ...

2017| Philipp König, Dmitry Chervyakov
DIW Roundup 107 / 2017

The Inflation Targeting Debate

Inflation targeting has become one of the most prominent monetary regimes around the globe. Proponents argue that it reduces the dynamic inconsistency problem of monetary policy and thereby stabilises prices, which in turn promotes growth. Opponents, on the other hand, say that by focusing on price stability inflation targeting neglects other important policy objectives, such as financial stability, ...

2017| Malte Rieth
DIW Roundup 104 / 2016

Tax Evasion and the Impact of International Regulation: A Summary of Empirical Results

While combating tax evasion ranks highly on the international policy agenda and journalists are covering leak after leak, the economics profession at large has somewhat neglected the subject until recently. In the last years, however, a combination of better international financial data and ingenious identification strategies in several pioneering studies has made the subject popular in empirical economics. ...

2016| Jakob Miethe, Helge Niesytka
DIW Roundup 102 / 2016

Parental Leave Policies and Child Development: A Review of Empirical Findings

Parental leave policies are a major policy tool used across OECD countries to support families before and after child birth. There are large differences across countries in the amount and the duration of benefit payments as well as leave entitlement periods. Despite these differences, the shared goal of parental leave policies is to reconcile family life and work, and support child development. While ...

2016| Mathias Huebener
DIW Roundup 100 / 2016

CGE-Based Methods to Measure the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty

It is heavily discussed whether trade liberalization is good or bad for the poor in a given (developing) country. The answer depends on a wide variety of factors, such as the type of trade barrier removed, the economic and institutional environment in the country, and the characteristics of the poor in that country (Winters 2002; Winters et al. 2004). In addition, the results can also be driven by ...

2016| Isabel Teichmann
DIW Roundup 99 / 2016

What Causes the Delay in Reforms in Europe?

The academic literature provides no clear answer to this question. In principle, the recent slowdown in reform activity and fiscal consolidation in the euro area may derive from several developments. Potential reasons involve the end of the economic recession, the provision of financial assistance to crisis countries, and improved financing conditions for governments as a result of unconventional monetary ...

2016| Malte Rieth, Lisa Gehrt
DIW Roundup 98 / 2016

Nuclear Power and the Uranium Market: Are Reserves and Resources Sufficient?

The increase of the use of atomic power in some emerging economies, in particular South Korea and China, has revitalized a discussion regarding the availability of uranium resources. Despite the fact that global uranium resources are more than sufficient to supply reactor-related demand for the rest of the century, some voices in the nuclear community expect a supply shortage for the upcoming decades, ...

2016| Roman Mendelevitch, Thanh Thien Dang
DIW Roundup 96 / 2016

Demand Response in Germany: Technical Potential, Benefits and Regulatory Challenges

An increased flexibility of the electricity demand side through demand response (DR) is an opportunity to support the integration of renewable energies. By optimising the use of the generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure, DR reduces the need for costly investments and contributes to system security. There is a significant technical DR potential for load reduction from industrial production ...

2016| Jan Stede
DIW Roundup 95 / 2016

The Dilemma or Trilemma Debate: Empirical Evidence

One of the central results in international economics is that an economy cannot have at the same time independent monetary policy, free capital flows, and a fixed exchange rate. Over the last few years, however, this so-called Mundell-Flemming ‘trilemma’ has increasingly been challenged. It is argued that given the rising importance and synchronization of capital and credit flows across countries and ...

2016| Pablo Anaya, Michael Hachula
DIW Roundup 93 / 2016

Corporate Taxation, Leverage, and Macroeconomic Stability

A key challenge for economic policy today is to make the financial system more resilient. The literature finds that high indebtedness (or: leverage), both in the financial and in the real sectors, is a danger to macroeconomic stability and growth. Moreover, the design of the corporate tax system is an important determinant of leverage: in many countries interest paid on debt is tax-deductible while ...

2016| Franziska Bremus, Jeremias Huber
DIW Roundup 92 / 2016

Economic Effects of Uncertainty

This Roundup discusses the literature on the effects of uncertainty on economic activity. Uncertainty will be generally referred to as the agents’ inability to form clear expectations about the future path of relevant economic variables. After motivating the analysis from a policy perspective, the Roundup outlines the key channels through which uncertainty exerts an impact on the economy. It then discusses ...

2016| Michele Piffer
DIW Roundup 91 / 2016

The Paris Climate Agreement: Is It Sufficient to Limit Climate Change?

“The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet” (UN News Centre, 2015). Statements, like this one from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, represent the global excitement shortly after the acceptance of the Paris Agreement and describe the outcome of the COP21 in December 2015 primarily as ‘historical’. Twenty years after the UN’s first COP (Conference of the Parties), the international ...

2016| Hanna Brauers, Philipp M. Richter
DIW Roundup 88 / 2015

Can Central Banks Successfully Lean against Global Headwinds?

Despite expansionary central bank action, inflation remains low in the euro area. How much can we expect from the additional stimulus in face of anaemic global growth and declining oil prices? More generally, have central banks lost the ability to steer inflation in a globalised world where external factors have powerful effects on domestic inflation? This roundup summarises the evidence in the literature ...

2015| Malte Rieth
DIW Roundup 87 / 2015

Leaving Coal Unburned: Options for Demand-Side and Supply-Side Policies

Climate policy consistent with the 2°C target needs to install mechanisms that leave most current coal reserves unburned. Demand-side policies have been argued to be prone to adverse carbon leakage and “green paradox” effects. A growing strain of literature argues in favor of supply-side policies in order to curb future coal consumption. Various concepts with analogies in other sectors are currently ...

2015| Kim Collins, Roman Mendelevitch
DIW Roundup 86 / 2015

Climate Negotiations: What Can Be Expected from the Climate Summit in Paris?

Shortly before the upcoming UN climate summit, Angela Merkel wrote in a German newspaper: “With good reason, it is expected from governments and politicians, that they do not longer close their eyes to the pressing scientific results that climate protection requires rapid and vigorous action.” She further calls for a clear negotiation outcome: “The greenhouse gas emissions do not only have to be stabilized, ...

2015| Philipp M. Richter, Hanna Brauers
DIW Roundup 83 / 2015

Productivity Growth, Investment, and Secular Stagnation

In many advanced economies, the economic recovery from the financial crisis has been sluggish. In light of these developments, it has been argued by various economists that economic growth per capita has already been on a downward trend since the 1980s. Studies suggest that this is largely due to low productivity growth. While factors of production such as labor and capital are being used more productively ...

2015| Guido Baldi, Patrick Harms
DIW Roundup 79 / 2015

Increasing Father Involvement in Child Care: What Do We Know about Effects on Child Development?

The time fathers spend and the activities they perform with children have risen continuously in most Western countries. Increasing father involvement in child care has also been an explicit policy objective with many European countries implementing individual parental leave entitlements for fathers. Whereas these policies mainly aimed at facilitating reconciliation of market work and family care and ...

2015| Pia S. Schober
DIW Roundup 78 / 2015

Population Ageing and Its Effects on the German Economy

The latest long-term projection of Germany’s population implies a clear trend: even though slight growth is expected over the next decade, a decline in the future is almost inevitable. Furthermore, an ageing society combined with a low fertility rate will lead to massive shrinkage of the working-age population. What are the social and economic consequences of these developments? Is a decline in economic ...

2015| Dirk Ulbricht, Dmitry Chervyakov
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