Discussion Papers

About the Discussion Papers

The researchers at DIW Berlin usually publish their research results in scientific journals. However, this process can take many months, depending on the circumstances. To help bridge this gap, DIW Berlin began publishing Discussion Papers in 1989. The Discussion Papers offer a preview of the latest, not-yet-published research results, and allow current research to make its way into current debate more quickly.

Notes for authors

For publication in the series of DIW discussion papers the following may be submitted: Papers by DIW employees, DIW research professors and directors, DIW research affiliates and guest scientists who have spent at least one week at DIW Berlin and thank DIW Berlin in a footnote.    
Papers submitted will be sent in electronic form to the head of the relevant department at DIW Berlin. It is checked by an internal referee procedure whether or not the paper is likely to be published in a refereed journal. A decision on publication will then be made on the basis of a referee report. Should a paper have already been accepted for a publication by a refereed SSCI magazine or have received an invitation to a re-submission in a first-class journal, it will appear immediately without a referee procedure.

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1979 results, from 1
Diskussionspapiere 1976 / 2021

Energy Transition Metals

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions ...

2021| Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer
Diskussionspapiere 1975 / 2021

Does Grandparenting Pay off for the Next Generations? Intergenerational Effects of Grandparental Care

Grandparents act as the third largest caregiver after parental care and daycare in Germany, as in many Western societies. Adopting a double-generation perspective, we investigate the causal impact of this care mode on children's health, socio-emotional behavior, and school outcomes, as well as parental well-being. Based on representative German panel data sets, and exploiting arguably exogenous variations ...

2021| Mara Barschkett, C. Katharina Spieß, Elena Ziege
Diskussionspapiere 1974 / 2021

Wage Risk and Portfolio Choice: The Role of Correlated Returns

From standard portfolio-choice theory it is well-understood that background risk, overwhelmingly due to wage risk, is one of the central determinants of individuals’ portfolio composition: higher background risk reduces risky investments. However, if background risk is negatively correlated with financial market risk, higher background risk implies more risky investment. We quantify the influence of ...

2021| Johannes König, Maximilian Longmuir
Diskussionspapiere 1973 / 2021

Is Voting Really Habit-Forming and Transformative? Long-Run Effects of Earlier Eligibility on Turnout and Political Involvement from the UK

Habit formation theory and the transformative voting hypothesis both imply that voting has downstream consequences for turnout and political involvement. Although several studies have applied causal research designs to study this question, the long-run evidence is extremely limited, especially for potentially transformative effects. We jointly examine the short- and long-term impact of earlier voting ...

2021| Jonas Jessen, Daniel Kuehnle, Markus Wagner
Diskussionspapiere 1972 / 2021

The Hidden Homeownership Welfare State: An International Long-Term Perspective on the Tax Treatment of Homeowners

Welfare is traditionally understood through social security decommodifying labor markets or social investment policies. In the domain of housing, however, welfare for homeowners is largely hidden in the tax codes’ fiscal exemptions. Based on a content analysis of legislation, this paper introduces a novel yearly database of 37 countries between 1910 and 2020 to uncover the “hidden welfare state” of ...

2021| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, Artem Korzhenevych, Linus Pfeiffer
Diskussionspapiere 1971 / 2021

Face Mask Use and Physical Distancing before and after Mandatory Masking: No Evidence on Risk Compensation in Public Waiting Lines

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory face mask usage triggered a heated debate. A major point of debate is whether community use of masks creates a false sense of security that would diminish physical distancing, counteracting any potential direct benefit from masking. We conducted a randomized field experiment in Berlin, Germany, to investigate how masks affect distancing and ...

2021| Gyula Seres, Anna Balleyer, Nicola Cerutti, Jana Friedrichsen, Müge Süer
Diskussionspapiere 1970 / 2021

Behavioral Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment

Children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) tend to benefit more from early child care, but are substantially less likely to be enrolled. We study whether reducing behavioral barriers in the application process increases enrollment in child care for lower-SES children. In our RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (n > 600), treated families receive application information and personal ...

2021| Henning Hermes, Philipp Lergetporer, Frauke Peter, Simon Wiederhold
Diskussionspapiere 1969 / 2021

Drivers of Participation Elasticities across Europe: Gender or Earner Role within the Household?

We compute participation tax rates across the EU and find that work disincentives inherent in tax-benefit systems largely depend on household composition and the individual's earner role within the household. We then estimate participation elasticities using an IV group estimator that enables us to investigate the responsiveness of individuals to work incentives. We contribute to the literature on ...

2021| Charlotte Bartels, Cortnie Shupe
Diskussionspapiere 1968 / 2021

Unterschiede in Covid-19-Impfquoten und in den Gründen einer Nichtimpfung nach Geschlecht, Alter, Bildung und Einkommen

Offizielle Daten des Digitalen Impfquoten-Monitoring (DIM) des RKI erlauben es nicht, anhand von sozio-demografischen und sozio-ökonomischen Merkmalen Personengruppen mit einer vergleichsweise geringen Impfquote zu identifizieren und dadurch eine gezielte Ansprache für eine Impfung zu initiieren. Diese Studie untersucht anhand von Daten der COMPASS-Befragung den Zusammenhang zwischen dem Impfstatus ...

2021| Mathias Huebener, Gert G. Wagner
Diskussionspapiere 1967 / 2021

Zooming in on Monetary Policy - The Labor Share and Production Dynamics of Two Million Firms

Conditional on a contractionary monetary policy shock, the labor share of value added is expected to decrease in the basic New Keynesian model. By providing firm-level evidence, we are first to validate this proposition. Using local projections and high dimensional fixed effects, we show that a one standard deviation contractionary monetary policy shock decreases firms' labor share by 0.4 percent, ...

2021| Jan Philipp Fritsche, Lea Steininger
Diskussionspapiere 1966 / 2021

Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

2021| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
Diskussionspapiere 1965 / 2021

Estimating Demand with Multi-Homing in Two-Sided Markets

We empirically investigate the relevance of multi-homing in two-sided markets. First, we build a micro-founded structural econometric model that encompasses demand for differentiated products and allows for multi-homing on both sides of the market. We then use an original dataset on the Italian daily newspaper market that includes information on double-homing by readers to estimate readers’ and advertisers’ ...

2021| Pauline Affeldt, Elena Argentesi, Lapo Filistrucchi
Diskussionspapiere 1964 / 2021

Income Business Cycles

Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than middle-income individuals. Third, these fluctuations ...

2021| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Sandra Pasch
Diskussionspapiere 1963 / 2021

Strengthening Gender Justice in a Just Transition: A Research Agenda Based on a Systematic Map of Gender in Coal Transitions

For climate change mitigation a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels such as coal is necessary. This has far-reaching gender-specific consequences. This paper presents a systematic map of the literature that examines the impact of historical coal phase-out processes on women and their role in these processes. The search process consists of screening 2,816 abstracts and reading 247 full-text studies. The ...

2021| Paula Walk, Isabell Braunger, Josephine Semb, Carolin Brodtmann, Pao-Yu Oei, Claudia Kemfert
Diskussionspapiere 1962 / 2021

Risky Asset Holdings during Covid-19 and Their Distributional Impact: Evidence from Germany

We present evidence from a repeated survey on risky asset holdings carried out on a representative sample of the German population six times between April and June 2020. Given the size of the Covid-19 shock, we find little evidence of portfolio rebalancing in April 2020. In May, however, individual investors started buying heavily, fueling market recovery. The cross-section shows large differences ...

2021| Lukas Menkhoff, Carsten Schröder
Diskussionspapiere 1961 / 2021

Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses

The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 14 contributions of the special issue on the “Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses,” the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the ...

2021| Maksim Belitski, Christina Guenther, Alexander S. Kritikos, Roy Thurik
Diskussionspapiere 1960 / 2021

The Productivity Puzzle in Business Services

In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the ...

2021| Alexander S. Kritikos , Alexander Schiersch, Caroline Stiel
Diskussionspapiere 1959 / 2021

What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting ...

2021| Dawud Ansari, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Helen Schlüter
Diskussionspapiere 1958 / 2021

Physician Effects in Antibiotic Prescribing: Evidence from Physician Exits

Human antibiotic consumption is considered the main driver of antibiotic resistance. Reducing human antibiotic consumption without compromising health care quality poses one of the most important global health policy challenges. A crucial condition for designing effective policies is to identify who drives antibiotic treatment decisions, physicians or patient demand. We measure the causal effect of ...

2021| Shan Huang, Hannes Ullrich
Diskussionspapiere 1957 / 2021

Culture, Children and Couple Gender Inequality

This paper examines how culture impacts within-couple gender inequality. Exploiting the setting of Germany's division and reunification, I compare child penalties of couples socialised in a more gender-egalitarian culture (East Germany) to those in a gender-traditional culture (West Germany). Using a household panel, I show that the long-run child penalty on the female income share is 26.9 percentage ...

2021| Jonas Jessen
1979 results, from 1
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