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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. ...
In:
Journal of Applied Econometrics
38 (2023), 3, S. 388-406
| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the ...
In:
Quantitative Economics
14 (2023), 1, S. 161-200
| Thore Schlaak, Malte Rieth, Maximilian Podstawski
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We construct a global index of epidemic news based on text analysis of newspapers from 17 countries. We apply the index to study the economic consequences of epidemics on the world economy in structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks exert significantly and persistently negative effects on output and prices that last for up to two years. There is no quick recovery and no overshooting. The ...
In:
European Economic Review
158 (2023), 104526, 15 S.
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Evidence on the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and ...
In:
The Review of Economics and Statistics
103 (2021), 5, S. 939–953
| Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, Tobias Stöhr
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...
In:
IMF Economic Review
69 (2021), 2, S. 391–426
| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...
In:
Journal of Public Economics
203 (2021), 104513, 18 S.
| Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial institutions in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We consider two states of the world: tranquil and turbulent. We decompose the observable time-varying price volatility during the period 2006M6–2016M5 into changes in the slopes of traders’ demand curves and into changes ...
In:
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
191 (2021), S. 1011-1024
| Daniel Bierbaumer, Malte Rieth, Anton Velinov
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper studies the impact of ï¬nancial investments on agricultural futures prices, using structural vector autoregressions. We identify exogenous variation in net long positions of speculators through heteroskedasticity. We ï¬rst show that demand shocks of both index investors and noncommercial traders lead to a statistically signiï¬cant contemporaneous increase in futures prices. ...
In:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
102 (2020), 3, S. 759-785
| Michael Hachula, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with external instruments. The instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private ...
In:
Journal of the European Economic Association
18 (2020), 1, S. 202-231
| Michael Hachula, Michele Piffer, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reform adoption in the euro area. We identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We find that surprise monetary expansions increase the number of reforms significantly and that the effect is stronger for countries with weaker macroeconomic ...
In:
European Economic Review
122 (2020), 103361, 20 S.
| Malte Rieth, Jana Wittlich