We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We ï¬nd that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, ...
The article analyses the empirical relationship between bank credit risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area, using a system of simultaneous equations identified through heteroskedasticity. We first confirm a two-way causality between both risks, which amplifies initial credit risk shocks. We also document significant credit risk spillovers between sovereigns and banks in the periphery and the ...
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic long-run levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
This paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility using macro data from a sample of OECD countries over the period 1982–2009. Our measure of progressivity is based on the difference between the marginal and the average personal income tax rate for the average production worker. We find supportive empirical evidence for the hypothesis that higher ...
This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances ...
Durch die europäische Schuldenkrise wurde offensichtlich, wie wichtig eine Vertiefung der europäischen Integration ist. Wichtige Reformen zur Weiterentwicklung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion sind zwar auf den Weg gebracht, aber häufig unvollendet. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Entscheidungen zur Bankenunion und diskutiert, wie die Entkopplung des Teufelskreislaufs zwischen Staats- ...
The ECB has engaged in several forms of unconventional monetary policy since 2007. This report documents empirically that the implemented measures were effective. In a counterfactual analysis, the report simulates the effects of an unconventional monetary policy shock of -10 basis points to euro area sovereign yields, consistent with the effect of the first announcement of the Expanded Asset Purchase ...
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...