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Despite Crises, the Stability of the Euro Is Rooted in the Middle Class

In the 24 years since its introduction, the euro has experienced a financial crisis, a government debt crisis, a global pandemic, and an energy crisis—and survived. Using a model focusing on households, this Weekly Report shows that the monetary union’s stability is rooted in the fact that the middle class neither gains nor loses significantly relative to an independent currency following business ...

And Yet They Move: Energy Prices Fall When Key Interest Rates Increase, Despite Countervailing Effects

Energy prices have risen sharply as a result of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting consumer price inflation is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act in accordance with its mandate. However, the ECB expresses doubts that it will be able to have an impact on the price increases. As this Weekly Report based on an analysis of structural ...

Brüning’s Austerity Policies of the Early 1930s Intensified the Economic Slump and Increased Unemployment

May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...

ECB Can Lower Fuel and Heating Costs by Increasing Interest Rates but Would Risk Economic Recovery

Inflation has been growing considerably since the middle of 2021, with rising energy prices driving the increase in particular. Since the end of February 2022, the trend has also been exacerbated by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. To keep prices stable, the European Central Bank must rein in its accommodative monetary policy. However, would doing so—by enacting an interest rate increase, for ...

Income Inequality in Germany Temporarily Sinks During Crises

This study is the first to investigate the interdependence of income inequality and business cycles in Germany over the past 40 years. These fluctuations in income inequality are important because they are decisive for designing effective and targeted structural redistributive and stabilization measures. The results of this study show that income inequality in Germany fluctuates with the business cycle ...

The Case of Deutsche Telekom: How Stock Market Crashes Can Persistantly Affect Household Investment Decisions

Since decades, only one fourth of German households invest in shares. One exception was during the three IPOs from 1996 to 2000 of the Deutsche Telekom, which gave Germans a taste to enter the stock market. However, the fall in the share price shortly after the second IPO, followed by corruption scandals of the company, put an end to their enthusiasm. The present study based on SOEP data shows that ...

Fiscal Rules Mitigate Economic Setbacks during Crises

91 countries around the world have established fiscal rules to limit national debt and/or budget deficits. Using data from previous natural disasters, this report investigates how these fiscal rules affect overall economic development following a crisis. The results show countries with fiscal rules fare better after such shocks than those without. GDP, private consumption, and investments develop markedly ...

Financial Market Participants Expect the Coronavirus Pandemic to Have Long-Lasting Economic Impact in Europe

Market participants are generally in agreement that the coronavirus pandemic will have a severe impact on the European economy, but it is difficult to predict the length and extent of the pandemic’s effects. However, using the yield curves of corporate bonds, we can reach some preliminary conclusions about the impact of the pandemic. The expectations of financial market participants are revealed in ...

A Stable and Social Europe: Fiscal Rules, a Stabilization Fund, Insolvency Rules, Gender Quota, Gender Pension Gaps, and Education: Reports

Europe Must Focus on Its Strengths: Editorial