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Chinesische Beteiligung an Sanktionen könnte Druck auf Russland erheblich verstärken: Interview

Sanktionskoalitionen erhöhen Kosten für Russland, aber Last der Mitgliedsländer sollte verteilt werden

Zunehmend setzen Staaten auf Allianzen oder Koalitionen, um gemeinsam Sanktionen gegen ein Drittland zu verhängen. Die Auswirkungen einer solchen Koordination sind jedoch unklar. Dieser Wochenbericht analysiert die Sanktionswelle gegen Russland im Jahr 2014 anhand von 400 000 Simulationen mit einem quantitativen Handelsmodell. Die Analyse zeigt, dass die multilaterale Zusammenarbeit bei den Sanktionen ...

Coalitions for Sanctions Heighten Costs for Russia but Burden of Implementation Should Be Shared among Member Countries

Countries increasingly form alliances to collectively impose sanctions. However, the resulting impact of such coordination remains unclear. Analyzing the 2014 wave of sanctions against Russia over 400,000 simulations with a quantitative trade model, this report demonstrates that multilateral cooperation through coalitions simultaneously reduced domestic welfare losses incurred from sanctions and intensified ...

Trumps Zollpolitik: Was eskalierende Handelskonflikte mit den USA für EU-Exporteure und Lieferketten bedeuten

Die USA haben in ihrer Handelspolitik eine deutliche Abkehr vom Multilateralismus vollzogen. Neue, weitreichende Zölle stellen eine ernsthafte Bedrohung für die globalen Lieferketten dar. Da die USA nach wie vor der größte Warenexportmarkt der Europäischen Union (EU) sind, haben diese Maßnahmen erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die EU-Staaten. Die Exporte in die USA hängen in hohem Maße von einer kleinen ...

Trump’s Tariffs: What Escalating Trade Tensions with the US Imply for EU Exporters and Supply Chains

US trade policy has taken a sharp turn away from multilateralism, with sweeping new tariffs posing a serious threat to global supply chains. As the US remains the EU’s largest export market for goods, these measures carry significant repercussions for the bloc. Exports to the US are heavily reliant on a small number of companies and high-value business relationships—making the EU particularly vulnerable ...

Renminbi Rising? Exporters' Response to China's Currency Internationalization

This paper investigates the heterogeneous responses of exporters to policy reforms undertaken by the People’s Bank of China to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB). Using detailed customs data from France for the initial years of these reforms (2011-2017), it documents several novel stylized facts on RMB adoption, highlighting both the growth and extreme skewness in RMB’s uptake across firms and varieties. ...

Brothers in Arms: The Value of Coalitions in Sanctions Regimes

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare ...

Brothers in Arms: The Value of Coalitions in Sanctions Regimes

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (1) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (2) compare prospective coalition partners; (3) investigate ‘optimal’ coalitions that maximize payoff from sanctions; ...

Trade Liberalization along the Firm Size Distribution: The Case of the EU-South Korea FTA

Leading theories suggest that amongst continuing exporters, lower variable trade costs should boost exports of smaller firms by the same or greater percentage rate than larger firms. However, investigating the impact of the deep EU-South Korea FTA with French customs data, we find robust evidence to the contrary. Applying a triple-difference framework, we report that the FTA increased sales in the ...

An Analysis of the Implementation of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA): In-Depth Analysis

This in-depth analysis offers a quantitative analysis of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada, six years after its provisional enforcement. Our analysis confirms substantial economic gains: goods exports from the EU to Canada increased by 27 % and imports rose by 32 % due to the agreement. The services sector also showed robust growth, with 19 % and 15 % increases ...