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Assessing Fiscal-Policy Sustainability: On the Different States of the Debt-to-GDP Process

This paper assesses fiscal-policy sustainability. A sufficient condition for this is that public debt is on a stationary trajectory. This is tested by means of a very general Markov-switching augmented Dickey-Fuller (MS-ADF) model, which expands and improves simpler existing models of this type, and produces more reliable results than conventional state-invariant unit-root tests. Long data series (in ...

In: Finanzarchiv 71 (2015), 4, S. 415-439 | Anton Velinov
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Do Stock Prices Reflect Their Fundamentals? New Evidence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

We re-examine the dynamic relations between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals for six major industrialized countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, which relies on a long-run restriction to identify fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to stock prices. This paper is the first in this line of literature ...

In: Journal of Economics and Business 80 (2015), S. 1-20 | Anton Velinov, Wenjuan Chen
12 results, from 11