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  • DIW Wochenbericht 8 / 2023

    Und sie bewegen sich doch: Energiepreise sinken, wenn Leitzins steigt – trotz gegenläufiger Effekte

    Durch die Corona-Pandemie und insbesondere den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine sind die Energiepreise stark gestiegen. Die damit einhergehende hohe Verbraucherpreisinflation zwingt die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ihrem Mandat entsprechend zum Handeln. Jedoch äußerte die EZB zunächst selbst Zweifel, etwas gegen die Energiepreissteigerungen ausrichten zu können. Wie dieser Wochenbericht auf ...

    2023| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann
  • DIW Wochenbericht 12 / 2018

    Berücksichtigung des Teufelskreises zwischen Banken und Staaten verbessert Prognose von Kreditrisiken

    Bestehende Frühwarnsysteme für wirtschaftliche Krisen haben die Auswirkungen des Teufelskreises zwischen Banken und Staaten auf die Finanzstabilität nicht erkannt. Der vor-liegende Beitrag stellt ein neues Prognosemodell für Kredit-risiken im Banken- und Staatssektor vor, das die gegenseitigen Abhängigkeiten zwischen beiden Sektoren berücksichtigt. Dadurch verbessert sich die Genauigkeit der Vorhersage ...

    2018| Martin Bruns, Malte Rieth, Ben Schumann
  • DIW Weekly Report 8 / 2023

    And Yet They Move: Energy Prices Fall When Key Interest Rates Increase, Despite Countervailing Effects

    Energy prices have risen sharply as a result of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The resulting consumer price inflation is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act in accordance with its mandate. However, the ECB expresses doubts that it will be able to have an impact on the price increases. As this Weekly Report based on an analysis of structural ...

    2023| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2058 / 2023

    Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle

    We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements—dollar trinity—rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows ...

    2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2057 / 2023

    Global Risk and the Dollar

    The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

    2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2033 / 2023

    The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy

    This study examines whether central banks can combat inflation that is caused by rising energy prices. By using a high-frequency event study and a Structural Vector Autoregression, we find evidence that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are capable of doing so by affecting domestic and global energy prices. This “energy-price channel” of monetary policy plays an important ...

    2023| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Global Risk and the Dollar

    The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

    In: Journal of Monetary Economics (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-01-11] | Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    What Goes around Comes around: How Large Are Spillbacks from US Monetary Policy?

    Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a monetary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and ...

    In: Journal of Monetary Economics 131 (2022), S. 45–60 | Max Breitenlechner, Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation

    We test for the empirical relevance of partial and asymmetric dominant-currency pricing (DCP), the hypothesis that large but not necessarily identical shares of economies’ export and import prices are sticky in US dollar. We first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing and local-currency pricing. Under ...

    In: Journal of International Economics 133 (2021), 103537 | Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
9 results, from 1
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