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Ein einzelner und dafür höherer Schuldenschnitt ist für Gläubiger besser als mehrere kleine: Interview

200 Jahre Staatsschuldenkrisen: Wiederholte Umschuldungen können mit höheren Gläubigerverlusten einhergehen

In den vergangenen 200 Jahren hat es weltweit viele Zahlungsausfälle von Staaten gegeben. Die Untersuchung von 321 Umschuldungsabkommen seit 1815 zeigt, dass Verluste von ausländischen privaten und institutionellen Investoren durchschnittlich 43 Prozent betrugen. Auffällig ist, dass es insbesondere seit den 1970er Jahren zunehmend mehrerer Umschuldungen bedurfte, um einen Zahlungsausfall nachhaltig ...

Das Gesetz schafft Anreize, damit Unternehmen ihre Produktion in die USA verlagern: Interview

US-Investitionspaket Inflation Reduction Act erfordert schnelles strategisches Handeln der EU

Im August 2022 hat der US- Kongress ein umfangreiches Bundesgesetz, den Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), verabschiedet, das der US-Wirtschaft zu mehr Wachstum und Resilienz verhelfen soll. Es ist ein massives staatliches Investitions- und Ausgabenprogramm in den Sozialstaat, in die bundesweite Infrastruktur und in den Klima- und Umweltschutz in Höhe von geschätzt rund 430 Milliarden Dollar. Gleichzeitig ...

200 Years of Sovereign Debt Crises: Serial Restructurings May Be Accompanied by Higher Creditor Losses

Many sovereign defaults have occurred worldwide over the past 200 years. An analysis of 321 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815 shows that foreign private and institutional investor losses were 43 percent on average. Notably, beginning in the 1970s, several debt exchanges have increasingly been required to resolve a default. To understand this new phenomenon better, this Weekly Report looks at ...

US Inflation Reduction Act Demands Quick Strategic Action from the EU

In August 2022, the US Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a comprehensive piece of legislation aiming to stimulate the US economy and to increase its resilience. At an estimated 430 billion euros, it is a massive government investment and spending program in the welfare state, federal infrastructure, climate action, and environmental protection. At the same time, the IRA is intended ...

Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar than You Think

Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. Based on rich new data we compare risky US corporate bonds (“junk” bonds) to risky emerging market sovereign ...

Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years

How do commodity price movements affect sovereign default risk over the long-run? Using a novel dataset covering 41 countries and 42 raw commodities, we take a comprehensive long-run view to shed light on this so far understudied relationship between commodity risk and sovereign risk across 150 years. We create a novel country-specific commodity price index that allows us to take advantage of countries’ ...

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...