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DIW Discussion Papers 942 / 2009
This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of possible transmission channels: spillovers in mean returns, volatility, and cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. ...
2009| John Beirne, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, Nicola Spagnolo
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DIW Discussion Papers 941 / 2009
The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004, and carries out "second-generation" tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Thouraya Hadj Amor, Christophe Rault
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DIW Discussion Papers 940 / 2009
This paper reviews the main features of the banking and financial sector in ten new EU members, and then examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in these countries by estimating a dynamic panel model over the period 1994-2007. The evidence suggests that the stock and credit markets are still underdeveloped in these economies, and that their contribution to economic ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Christophe Rault, Robert Sova, Anamaria Sova
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DIW Discussion Papers 938 / 2009
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed. ...
2009| Eric Girardin, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 937 / 2009
The paper scrutinizes the role of wages and capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model by international capital markets. The augmented Balassa-Samuelson model is linked to the monetary overinvestment theories of Wicksell and Hayek in order to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl, Holger Zemanek
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DIW Discussion Papers 933 / 2009
Global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001. Contrary to conventional wisdom, high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices. At the same time, however, asset prices have increased sharply, significantly outpacing the subdued development in consumer prices. We investigate the interactions between money and goods and asset prices at the global level. ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Walter Orth, Ralph Setzer
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DIW Discussion Papers 932 / 2009
This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Burcu Erdogan, Vladimir Kuzin
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DIW Discussion Papers 922 / 2009
We analyze the importance of global shocks for the global economy and national policy makers. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due to globalization-driven changes in the national economic structure. A FAVAR framework is applied to derive ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Andreas Rees
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DIW Discussion Papers 917 / 2009
We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and real time data per se and, second, the differences emerging from the use of non-modified real time data ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Jens Klose
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DIW Discussion Papers 915 / 2009
This paper quantifies the impact of incentives related to potential membership on institutional change as measured by the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI). Based on a panel of 25 transition countries for the period from 1996 to 2008 we show that pre-accession incentives provided by EU and NATO clearly matter for institutional development. In addition, path-dependency determined by cultural norms ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Ingo Bordon, Inna Melnykovska, Rainer Schweickert