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DIW Discussion Papers 898 / 2009
This paper examines the interactions between money, consumer prices and commodity prices at a global level from 1970 to 2008. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries and a cointegrating VAR framework, we are able to establish long run and short run relationships among these variables while the process is mainly driven by global liquidity. According to our empirical findings, different price ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Ingo G. Bordon, Torben W. Hendricks
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DIW Discussion Papers 896 / 2009
In a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, with sticky prices, the cross sectional distribution of output and inflation across a population of firms is studied. The only form of heterogeneity is confined to the probability that the ith changes its prices in response to a shock. In this Calvo setup the moments of the cross sectional distribution of output and inflation depend crucially ...
2009| Jörg Döpke, Michael Funke, Sean Holly, Sebastian Weber
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DIW Discussion Papers 895 / 2009
Low international competitiveness of a set of euro area countries, which have become evident by large current account deficits and rising risk premiums on government bonds, is one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe. We analyse the role of private restructuring and public structural reforms for the urgently needed readjustment of intra-euro area imbalances. A panel regression ...
2009| Holger Zemanek, Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl
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DIW Discussion Papers 891 / 2009
This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 - 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a parametric context if the underlying disturbances are weakly autocorrelated. We also examine the possibility of ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 885 / 2009
This paper examines the integration of stock markets in Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland and UK over January 1973-August 2008 at the aggregate market and industry level considering the following industries: basic materials, consumer goods, industrials, consumer services, health care and financials. The analysis is carried out by using correlation analysis, ß-convergence and s-convergence methods. ...
2009| Burcu Erdogan
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DIW Discussion Papers 882 / 2009
This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to- default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and insurances, analyze the influences of a number of observable factors on banking and insurance performance, and ...
2009| Kerstin Bernoth, Andreas Pick
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DIW Discussion Papers 879 / 2009
In this paper we specify a multi-factor long-memory process that enables us to estimate the fractional differencing parameters at each frequency separately, and adopt this framework to model quarterly prices in three European countries (France, Italy and the UK). The empirical results suggest that inflation in France and Italy is nonstationary. However, while for the former country this applies both ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 875 / 2009
This paper analyses trade specialisation dynamics in two Eastern European countries (Romania and Bulgaria - EEC-2) vis-à-vis the core EU member states (EU-15) over the period 1990-2006. Specifically, we focus on whether there is a shift towards intra-industry trade leading to economic convergence and technological catch-up. We use recently developed static (FEM, REM and FEVD) and dynamic (GMM) panel ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Christophe Rault, Robert Sova, Anamaria Sova
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DIW Discussion Papers 874 / 2009
This paper evaluates the Morningstar mutual fund ranking system. We find that indeed higher Morningstar ratings are associated with higher returns on the portfolios including respectively five-, four-, three-, two- and one-star funds only (STAR5 to STAR1). We then perform an unconditional and conditional portfolio performance evaluation. In both cases the evidence suggests that the better performance ...
2009| Antonios Antypas, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Nikolaos Kourogenis, Nikitas Pittis
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DIW Discussion Papers 873 / 2009
This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest ...
2009| John Beirne, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, Nicola Spagnolo