-
DIW Discussion Papers 814 / 2008
This paper analyzes the response of the European stock markets to the monetary policy shocks by the European Central Bank using the heteroskedasticity based approach of Rigobon (2003). We find that monetary policy tightening has a heterogeneous impact on the Euro Area sectors on the day the monetary policy is publicly announced. Furthermore, we provide statistical evidence against the use of the popular ...
2008| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Alberto Montagnoli, Oreste Napolitano, Boriss Siliverstovs
-
DIW Discussion Papers 813 / 2008
Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In fact, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 can be observed, and ...
2008| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
-
DIW Discussion Papers 795 / 2008
Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In ...
2008| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
-
DIW Discussion Papers 787 / 2008
A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of disagreement across forecasters naturally are distorted by a component that mainly reflects the time varying forecast ...
2008| Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche
-
DIW Discussion Papers 785 / 2008
In this study, we investigate whether population aging influences employment shares in different economic sectors. To this end, we employ dynamic panel data analysis. Our unbalanced data set comprises 54 countries and extends to a maximum time period from 1970 till 2004. Our results suggest that the aging variable - approximated by the ratio of elderly either to the total population or to the labor ...
2008| Ulrich Thießen, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Boriss Siliverstovs
-
DIW Discussion Papers 783 / 2008
The ratio of Indian to US per capita output over the past 45 years has displayed a distinctive "V"-shaped pattern. We show that a strikingly similar V-shaped pattern is visible not just in aggregate output .figures, but also as the primary determinant of long-term movements in the cross-sectional distribution within the All-India total, at both sectoral and state output levels. We also carry out preliminary ...
2008| Chetan Ghate, Stephen Wright
-
DIW Discussion Papers 758 / 2007
In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per capita income, real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices ...
2007| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Jan-Oliver Menz, Boriss Siliverstovs
-
DIW Discussion Papers 757 / 2007
In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth Support Vector Machines (SSVM), and investigate how important factors such as selection of appropriate accounting ...
2007| Wolfgang Härdle, Yuh-Jye Lee, Dorothea Schäfer, Yi-Ren Yeh
-
DIW Discussion Papers 756 / 2007
Since the turn of the millennium the problem of credibility of the social security system has spread to the private pension funds sector. This is evident for those countries, like Australia and Iceland, that have very large funded pensions assets as a result of strong pension reforms. The problem of trust could prevent pension fund investment from continuing to grow, weakening the privatization of ...
2007| Mariangela Bonasia, Oreste Napolitano
-
DIW Discussion Papers 754 / 2007
We investigate price index convergence on the base of regional data for 439 German districts. Prices refer to the overall consumer price index as well as to the index without housing prices. To increase the efficiency of the testing framework, a panel unit root analysis is performed, where cross section dependencies are taken into account. The tests indicate a lack of regional price convergence. While ...
2007| Christian Dreger, Reinhold Kosfeld