Forecasting and Economic Policy Publications

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  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Liquidity Requirements: A Double-Edged Sword

    This paper shows that bank liquidity regulation may be a "double-edged sword." Under certain conditions, it may hamper, rather than strengthen, a bank’s resilience to financial stress. The reason is the existence of two opposing effects of liquidity regulation, a liquidity effect and a solvency effect. The liquidity effect arises because a bank mitigates its risk of illiquidity when it increases its ...

    In: International Journal of Central Banking 11 (2015), 4, S. 129-168 | Philipp König
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Business Cycles, Unemployment and Entrepreneurial Entry: Evidence from Germany

    We investigate whether people are more willing to become self-employed during boom periods or during recessions and to what extent business cycles and unemployment levels influence entries into entrepreneurship. Our analysis for Germany reveals that there is a positive relationship between unemployment rates and start-up activities. Moreover, new business formation is higher during recessions than ...

    In: International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal 11 (2015), 2, S. 267-286 | Michael Fritsch, Alexander S. Kritikos, Katharina Pijnenburg
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low-Income Countries Special?

    Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low-income countries? In this paper, we explore the channels through which the structure of banking markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study whether idiosyncratic volatility at the bank level can impact aggregate volatility. We find weak ...

    In: Pacific Economic Review 20 (2015), 1, S. 73-100 | Franziska Bremus, Claudia M. Buch
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Small Might Be Beautiful, but Bigger Performs Better: Scale Economies in "Green" Refurbishments of Apartment Housing

    The energy efficiency of the residential housing stock plays a key role in strategies to mitigate climate change and global warming. In this context, it is frequently argued that private investment and the quality of thermal upgrades are too low in the light of the challenges faced and the potential energy cost savings. While many authors address the potential barriers for investors to increase energy ...

    In: Energy Economics 50 (2015), S. 240-250 | Claus Michelsen, Sebastian Rosenschon, Christian Schulz
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Drivers of Structural Change in Cross-Border Banking since the Global Financial Crisis

    The paper analyzes the effects of changes to regulatory policy and to monetary policy on cross-border bank lending since the global financial crisis. Cross-border bank lending has decreased, and the home bias in the credit portfolio of banks has risen sharply, especially among banks in the euro area. Our results suggest that expansionary monetary policy in the source countries – as measured by the ...

    In: Journal of International Money and Finance 52 (2015), 32-59 | Franziska Bremus, Marcel Fratzscher
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Log versus Level in VAR Forecasting: 42 Million Empirical Answers - Expect the Unexpected

    The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country set up and approximately 42 million pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of GDP ...

    In: Economics Letters 126 (2015), S. 40-42 | Johannes Mayr, Dirk Ulbricht
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Cross-Border Banking, Bank Market Structures and Market Power: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence

    Patterns in cross-border banking have changed since the global financial crisis. This may affect domestic bank market structures and macroeconomic stability in the longer term. In this study, I theoretically and empirically analyze how different modes of cross-border banking impact bank concentration and market power. I use a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks developed ...

    In: Journal of Banking & Finance 50 (2015), S. 242-259 | Franziska M. Bremus
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Zurück auf Los! Banken in Ostmittel- und Südosteuropa

    Nach der Privatisierung entwickelte sich der Bankensektor in Osteuropa dynamisch. Dazu trugen massive Investitionen hauptsächlich westeuropäischer Kreditinstitute bei. Das änderte sich mit der Finanzkrise 2008/2009. Heute halten sich die Banken mit der Kreditvergabe zurück. Das Wachstumspotential in Osteuropa wird nicht ausgeschöpft. Voraussetzung für eine Ankurbelung der Kreditvergabe wäre, die Bankbilanzen ...

    In: Osteuropa 64 (2014), 7, S. 85-103 | Hella Engerer
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Do Regions with Entrepreneurial Neighbours Perform Better? A Spatial Econometric Approach for German Regions

    A Neoclassical production function is used to analyse the effects of knowledge spillovers via entrepreneurship on economic performance of 337 German districts. To take the spatial dependence structure of the data into account, a spatial Durbin model was estimated. The importance of the choice of the appropriate weight matrix is highlighted. Positive knowledge spillover effects via entrepreneurship ...

    In: Regional Studies 48 (2014), 5, S. 866-882 | Katharina Pijnenburg, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Effect of the Business Cycle on Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Germany

    The benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are usually discussed in the context of reducing structural unemployment rates, especially among the young. Related to this, the long-run benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are extensively analyzed in the literature. However, empirical evidence regarding the short-run effects of the business cycle on the number of apprenticeships is scarce. In this ...

    In: Journal of Labor Research 35 (2014), Iss. 4, 412-422 | Guido Baldi, Imke Brüggemann-Borck, Thore Schlaak
2335 results, from 41
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