International Economics Department Publications

Consumer Debt: Many Borrowers Unaware of Their Interest Rates; Cost Display Influences Likelihood of Accepting Credit Scenario

The consumer debt of households in Germany totals in the triple-digit billions and is characterized by a wide range of interest rates. Despite the high volume of debt, many people do not know the terms of their consumer credit contracts. This report analyzes new survey data on general knowledge about typical forms of consumer credit, such as the overdraft facility and consumer loans. Women tend to ...

Financial Education Measures Are Effective: Germany Should Develop a National Strategy for Financial Education

The OECD recommends its member countries implement national strategies for financial education. Many other countries, such as China and India, also have such strategies, whereas Germany does not. The strongest reason for rejecting such a strategy is the supposition that financial education interventions are ineffective. Using all available randomized experimental studies, this study investigates and ...

Restrictive US Trade Policy Has a Significantly Negative Effect on Financial Markets

With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the costs of such a strategy are immense, at least in the medium-term analysis conducted: Almost all US industries ...

The Storm-Impervious Financial Sector: Offshore Services Likely Booked Abroad

The high international capital positions of offshore financial centers (OFCs) have led to increasing research in the area. However, many unanswered questions remain, as OFC activities are secretive by nature and data is sparse. It is, for example, not even clear whether the financial industry actually physically operates on OFCs or if it artificially books services from other countries. Using a new ...

Mobile Money is Driving Financial Development in Africa

Mobile money is an innovation that allows financial transactions to be performed via a cell phone. Even in poor regions of Africa, almost everyone has a cell phone; therefore, mobile money could both contribute to the continent’s economic growth and ensure that no Africans are excluded from access to financial services. However, DIW Berlin data from Uganda show that mobile money is actually used less ...

From Iran to Russia to Hong Kong: Geopolitical Risks Are Weighing on the German Economy

Over the past years, there has been an increase in global geopolitical risk, the most recent example being the intensifying conflict between the USA and Iran. Such geopolitical risks also affect the German economy. A geopolitical shock, defined as an unexpected increase in risk, has a significantly negative effect on the development of the German economy, and stock prices fall. By comparison, German ...

German Economy: A Recession Is Not Automatically a Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable developments on the labor market. Private consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; in addition, there is moderate ...

Growth Program Needed as the Foundation of the German Economy Crumbles: Editorial

German Economy Defying a Turbulent and Uncertain Environment: DIW Economic Outlook

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is continuing, albeit more slowly; and the trend of foreign demand is weakening but remains buoyant overall. In this ...

German Economy Performing Well Despite Odds; Time to Rethink Debt Rules: Editorial