International Economics Department Publications

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148 results, from 111
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Allais for the Poor: Relations to Ability, Information Processing, and Risk Attitudes

This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing ...

In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 54 (2017), 2, S. 129-156 | Tabea Herrmann, Olaf Hübner, Lukas Menkhoff, Ulrich Schmidt
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Estimating Risky Behavior with Multiple-Item Risk Measures

We compare seven established risk elicitation methods and investigate how robustly they explain eleven kinds of risky behavior with 760 individuals. Risk measures are positively correlated; however, their performance in explaining behavior is heterogeneous and, therefore, difficult to assess ex ante. Greater diversification across risk measures is conducive to closing this knowledge gap. What we find ...

In: Journal of Economic Psychology 59 (2017), S. 59-86 | Lukas Menkhoff, Sahra Sakha
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the US equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. The results tentatively improve over time, and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. In contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, but lose predictive power thereafter, even when considering the last crisis. Translating ...

In: International Journal of Forecasting 32 (2016), 4, S. 1193-1207 | Fabian Baetje, Lukas Menkhoff
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange (FX) market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of FX end-users. The results suggest that order flows are highly informative about future exchange rates and provide significant economic value. We also find that different ...

In: The Journal of Finance 71 (2016), 2, S. 601-633 | Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Exchange Rate Forecasts and Expected Fundamentals

Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, ...

In: Journal of International Money and Finance 53 (2015), S. 235-256 | Christian D. Dick, Ronald MacDonald, Lukas Menkhoff
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Shocks, Individual Risk Attitude, and Vulnerability to Poverty among Rural Households in Thailand and Vietnam

We examine whether the experience of shocks influences individual risk attitude. We measure the risk attitude of more than 4,000 households in Thailand and Vietnam via a simple survey item. The experience of adverse shocks, which is typical for poor and vulnerable households, is related to a higher degree of risk aversion, even when controlled for a large set of socio-demographic variables. Therefore, ...

In: World Development 71 (2015) S. 54-78 | Oliver Gloede, Lukas Menkhoff, Hermann Waibel
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Financial Conditions, Macroeconomic Factors and Disaggregated Bond Excess Returns

Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the innovation part. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations, we complement macro variables by financial condition variables as possible determinants of bond excess returns. ...

In: Journal of Banking & Finance 58 (2015), S. 80-94 | Christoph Fricke, Lukas Menkhoff
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Childhood Roots of Financial Literacy

Financial literacy predicts informed financial decisions, but what explains financial literacy? We use the concept of financial socialization and aim to represent three major agents of financial socialization: family, school and work. Thus we compile twelve relevant childhood characteristics in a new survey study and examine their relation to financial literacy, while controlling for established socio-demographic ...

In: Journal of Economic Psychology 51 (2015), S. 114-133 | Antonia Grohmann, Roy Kouwenberg, Lukas Menkhoff
Weitere Aufsätze

Was die Wirtschaftspolitik vom Wirtschaftsnobelpreis des Jahres 2019 lernen kann

Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo und Michael Kremer sind 2019 mit dem Wirtschaftsnobelpreis geehrt worden. Dies vor allem für ihren experimentellen Ansatz zur Linderung der weltweiten Armut. Die Laureaten nutzen randomisierte Experimente, um entwicklungspolitische Maßnahmen zu evaluieren. So haben sie die Grenzen der in Indien genutzten Mikrofinanzierung aufgezeigt. Zwar gibt es durchaus Kritik an dieser ...

In: Wirtschaftsdienst 100 (2020), 2, S. 133-137 | Lukas Menkhoff, Helke Seitz
Weitere Aufsätze

Antizyklischer Kapitalpuffer aktiviert - zu spät, zu wenig und dennoch richtig

In Deutschland wurde erstmals der antizyklische Eigenkapitalpuffer für Banken aktiviert. Die Eigenkapitalanforderungen wurden um den kleinstmöglichen Schritt erhöht. Außerdem erfolgt die Umsetzung im Vergleich zu anderen europäischen Ländern relativ spät. Dieses Muster der kleinen und späten Umsetzung kann eine Folge des institutionellen Rahmens mit drei zuständigen Institutionen sein. Die übrigen ...

In: Wirtschaftsdienst 99 (2019), 11, S. 784-788 | Horst Gischer, Bernhard Herz, Lukas Menkhoff
148 results, from 111