Most of the Euro-zone economic short-term indicators are computed through aggregation from Member States data. The seasonally adjusted figures can be calculated by seasonally adjusting the aggregate (direct approach) or aggregating the seasonally adjusted national data (indirect approach). Statistical and practical considerations to choose the right strategy are given in the paper. An application to ...
In this paper, we investigate the impact of the adjustment for seasonal effects with different seasonal adjustment methods, the possible pre-treatment for calendar effects and the different order of aggregation and adjustment for the determination of the turning points of the European business cycle. The European business cycle is represented first by the GDP series (referring to the classical definition ...
Der Artikel untersucht die Indikatoreigenschaften der Geldmenge für die Inflation. Unter Verwendung eines P*-Modells hat Svensson (2000) theoretisch gezeigt, dass die Beziehung zwischen beiden Größen recht schwach ausgeprägt ist. Die vorliegende Studie präsentiert empirische Evidenz für die Beziehung im Euroraum. Dabei wird Svenssons Ansatz durch die Berücksichtigung verschiedener Schocks sowie unter ...
A simulation study designed to evaluate the pseudo-R2T proposed in an earlier paper by Spiess and Keller suggests that, for the models considered, this measure represents the goodness of fit not only of the systematic part, but also of the assumed correlation structure in binary panel probit models.