This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic un-certainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. We test this proposition using a panel of non{financial US firms drawn from the COM-PUSTAT quarterly ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a ...
A model of Ukrainian shadow economy money demand is estimated that includes new regulatory burden, tax complexity, andsoft-budget constraint variables. This model is analyzed to determine the causes and dynamics of the Ukrainian shadow economy and to assess the effectiveness of state measures undertaken to reduce itssize. The direct tax burden, the broadly defined regulatory burden, the complexity ...
We study the effect of politics on the distribution of intergovernmental grants. We consider a model where local government officials lobby the central government who in turn distributes grants based on the local governments' lobbying efforts. We argue that the marginal costs of lobbying increase with the geographical and "political" distance from the central government capital. Hence, in equilibrium, ...