This paper proposes a new way to clarify the relationship between the sovereign-bank nexus and an individual bank’s home bias by employing stress test data from Europe’s most important banks. We use the individual bank’s likelihood to fail in achieving a minimum capital ratio threshold as the dependent variable in a cross-sectional logistic regression approach and compute marginal effects. In further ...
This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) communication in shaping market expectations and real economic outcomes. Using a transformer-based large language model (LLM) fine-tuned to ECB communication, the tone of monetary policy statements from 2003 to 2025 is classified, constructing a novel ECB Communication Stance Indicator. This indicator contains forward-looking ...
