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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. ...
In:
Journal of Applied Econometrics
38 (2023), 3, S. 388-406
| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
138 (2023), S. 87-103
| Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
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Diskussionspapiere 2042 / 2023
This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...
2023| Pia Hüttl, Simon Baumgartner
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing major challenges. Fragmentation of government bond yields across Member States of the European Economic and Monetary Union, based on different economic and fiscal policies, hampers a uniform transmission of monetary policy. At the same time, climate-related financial risks need to be addressed. In recent years, the ECB is meeting these challenges ...
In:
The Economists' Voice
20 (2023), 1, S. 111-118
| Kerstin Bernoth, Sara Dietz
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Diskussionspapiere 2063 / 2023
We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Conditioning on such exogenous events addresses the endogeneity between financial structures and economic conditions. We document that integration improves shock absorption: output, consumption, and investment are significantly higher after a shock ...
2023| Franziska Bremus, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2037 / 2023
We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The exchange rate is significantly affected by US monetary policy shocks, where the persistence of this shock ...
2023| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwartz, Lasse Trienens
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this paper, we investigate how European households changed the diversity of their financial portfolios in response to the Great Financial and the subsequent European Debt Crisis. For this purpose we apply a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach estimated as a correlated random effects (CRE) model to six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that households ...
In:
International Review of Economics and Finance
83 (2023), S. 330-347
| Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan, Henriette Weser
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Seminar of the Macro Department
06.09.2022| Ben Schumann
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Schumpeter BSoE Macro Seminar
19.07.2022| Johanna Krenz, Universität Hamburg
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Schumpeter BSoE Macro Seminar
05.07.2022| Kirsten Hubrich, Federal Reserve Board