Topic Financial Markets

Financial Repression in General Equilibrium: The Case of the United States, 1948–1974

Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...

Expert Studies on Fundamental Issues of Public Finance, Taxation, and Economic Policy

After being commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance, researchers at DIW Berlin and the ifo Institute prepare short-term expert reports and analyses on national, European and international financial, tax and fiscal policy issues.

Expert Studies on Fundamental Issues of Public Finance, Taxation, and Economic Policy

After being commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance, researchers at DIW Berlin and the ifo Institute prepare short-term expert reports and analyses on national, European and international financial, tax and fiscal policy issues.

Managing Public Debt and Economic Challenges

Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion. Key findings include: Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...

“Next steps for HANK” Workshop

3rd annual Workshop for Women in Macroeconomics, Finance and Economic History

The 3rd annual Workshop for Women in Macroeconomics, Finance and Economic History is being organized by the German Institute for Economic Research. The aim is to bring together female academic researchers and practitioners to promote and exchange ideas in the fields of Macroeconomics, Finance, and Economic History.

When Credit Turns Political: Evidence from the Spanish Financial Crisis

This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...

The Impacts of Global Risk and US Monetary Policy on US Dollar Exchange Rates and Excess Currency Returns

We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The exchange rate is significantly affected by US monetary policy shocks, where the persistence of this shock ...

Selective Bond Purchases – May the ECB Chose Winners and Losers?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing major challenges. Fragmentation of government bond yields across Member States of the European Economic and Monetary Union, based on different economic and fiscal policies, hampers a uniform transmission of monetary policy. At the same time, climate-related financial risks need to be addressed. In recent years, the ECB is meeting these challenges ...

The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates

Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency ...