In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis is vital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable to the bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (Type I error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitability of Smooth Support Vector Machines (SSVM), and investigate how important factors such as selection of appropriate accounting ...
The paper investigates young firms' choice of capital source. Our theoretical model hypothesizes a positive (negative) relation between riskiness of the project (price of venture capital) and receiving informed equity. We test our predictions by employing a unique data set collected by KfW group. The theoretical framework is largely confirmed for the sample of bank financing and independent VC financing. ...
The paper focuses on the effects of three different internal bank ratings - Risk-, Property- and Creditworthiness-Rating - on the loan maturity. We use a sample of about 5,000 loans given to sole proprietors and corporate borrowers by two German banks from January 2003 till July 2005. The estimation results for corporate borrowers are consistent with Diamond's (1991) predictions of non-monotonic relationship ...
This paper examines whether the behaviour of the real exchange rate is associated with a particular regime for the nominal exchange rate, like fixed and flexible exchange rate arrangements. The analysis is based on 16 annual real exchange rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton ...
Within a wide range of other economic and financial indicators, money is highly relevant to the two-pillar monetary strategy of the European Central Bank for detecting risks to price stability over the medium term. Money demand models are a natural benchmark for assessing monetary developments. The existence of a well-specified and stable relation between money and prices can be perceived as a prerequisite ...
We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...
Foreign exchange rate expectations play a central role in virtually all monetary models for the open economy. Therefore, it is extremely important to gain empirical insights into the expectations formation process. In this paper, we use a unique disaggregated data set to model the expectations of the Yen/USD exchange rate of about 50 leading foreign exchange rate professionals. The survey includes ...
The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market ...
