We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. There is an extensive literature on early warning systems, which claim to be apt for a systematical prediction of currency crises. One of the most prominent "early warning system" approaches was first developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart ...
In diesem Aufsatz wird die strukturelle Entwicklung der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland nach der Qualifikation zur Währungsunion analysiert. Um die verschiedenen Einflüsse auf die Entwicklung der öffentlichen Finanzen zu unterscheiden und einzuordnen, wird eine erweiterte Version eines disaggregierten Ansatzes zur Konjunkturbereinigung von Haushaltssalden verwandt. Wir untersuchen außerdem die ...