In the paper, we calculate real equilibrium exchange rates (EER) for EU accession countries and compare these with the actual exchange rate movements since the mid-1990s. The real equilibrium exchange rates are derived from models of macroeconomic balance and tested for econometrically. It is found that productivity increases can be regarded as one source of the observed PPI-based real appreciation ...
In diesem Aufsatz wird die strukturelle Entwicklung der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland nach der Qualifikation zur Währungsunion analysiert. Um die verschiedenen Einflüsse auf die Entwicklung der öffentlichen Finanzen zu unterscheiden und einzuordnen, wird eine erweiterte Version eines disaggregierten Ansatzes zur Konjunkturbereinigung von Haushaltssalden verwandt. Wir untersuchen außerdem die ...
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being ...
This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in nine Central and East European countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, we find that the productivity growth differential in the open sector leads to inflation in non-tradable goods. Because of the low share of non-tradables and the high share of food items in addition to regulated prices, the consumer price index is misleading when analyzing ...