DIW Berlin: Topic Business Cycles

Topic Business Cycles

832 results, from 1

A proposal for a Covid Credit Line

A proposal for a Covid Credit Line It is in the interest of every EU member state that countries in the Union hit by the coronavirus are able to take the necessary measures to control the pandemic and deal with the economic consequences without being constrained, and to do so very quickly. This column proposes a Covid credit line in the European Stability Mechanism, with allocation across member

23.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher

The ECB is sending a strong signal that now also governments need to act more decisively

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows: 

12.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2020

Nuclear Power Worldwide: Development Plans in Newcomer Countries Negligible

At just 4.4 percent, the contribution made by nuclear power to meeting the world’s primary energy requirements is marginal and on the decline. The current nuclear power fleet is outdated with around 200 plants due to be phased out over the next ten years compared to as few as 46 new nuclear power plants under construction worldwide. Yet the nuclear industry, particularly the World Nuclear

2020| Lars Sorge, Claudia Kemfert, Christian von Hirschhausen, Ben Wealer
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects, and Euro Area (Im)balances

We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with external instruments. The instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and

In: Journal of the European Economic Association 18 (2020), 1, S. 202-231 | Michael Hachula, Michele Piffer, Malte Rieth
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Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recov- ery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study infla- tion expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we

In: Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020), 101305, 18 S. | Volker Daniel, Lucas ter Steege
Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 1 / 2020

Debt and Financial Sentiment: Early Keynes on Balance Sheet Effects of Asset Price Changes

Das Papier untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen finanzieller Stimmung und privater Verschuldung und verwendet Keynes’ ‚A Treatise on Money‘ als konzeptionellen Hintergrund. In der Antwort auf seine Kritiker nach der Veröffentlichung seiner ‚General Theory‘ sprach Keynes bekanntlich von unerwarteten, gewaltigen Veränderungen bei der konventionellen Vermögensbewertung, wenn Zweifel an der The paper

2020| Korkut Alp Ertürk, Jake Jennings
DIW Weekly Report 12 / 2020

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously.

2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 12 / 2020

Coronavirus Plunges the German Economy into Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous

2020| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Thore Schlaak
Externe referierte Aufsätze

An Investment in the Future: Institutional Aspects of Credential Recognition of Refugees in Germany

Adding to the rich literature on the economic integration of refugees, this article extends the scope towards the role of institutions by focusing on the transfer of human capital by means of credential recognition. The 2012 Federal Act of Recognition in Germany is a new institution that provides the possibility to study the transfer of human capital in depth. I argue that analysing the decision

In: Journal of Refugee Studies (2020), im Ersch. [online first: 2019-11-15] | Jannes Jacobsen
Diskussionspapiere 1852 / 2020

Inequality over the Business Cycle – The Role of Distributive Shocks

This paper examines the dynamics of wealth and income inequality along the business cycle and assesses how they are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016 we find that on average income inequality - measured by the Gini coefficient - is countercyclical and also shows a significant association with the capital

2020| Marius Clemens, Ulrich Eydam, Maik Heinemann
832 results, from 1