Topic Business Cycles

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Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Recovery Loses Momentum - Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

The corona pandemic leaves substantial marks in the German economy and its impact is more persistent than assumed in spring. In their autumn report, the leading German economic research institutes have revised their economic outlook downwards by roughly one percentage point for both this and next year. They now expect gross domestic product to fall by 5.4 percent in 2020 (previously -4.2%) and to grow ...

14.10.2020
Berlin Lunchtime Meeting

Accelerating Transformation: the Role of Investment in Germany and the EU to Support Recovery from the Pandemic Shock

Europe and Germany are being hit by a historic shock due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Economic activity is going to shrink substantially this year, with lockdown measures having led to sharp contractions in economic output, household spending, corporate investment and international trade. Will we see a strong and sustainable recovery? Investment is central to reboot economic activity and to...

18.06.2020| Debora Revoltella, Jakob von Weizsäcker
DIW focus

A Green New Deal after Corona: What We Can Learn from the Financial Crisis

Already after the financial crisis in 2008/2009 there was a debate on whether elements aiming at sustainable development can be part of the stimulus packages and support the recovery of the economy. Despite the instinct of policy makers to prioritise battle-tested policies during a crisis, significant levels and different types of climate-friendly components were integrated in the 2009 stimulus...

11.05.2020| Olga Chiappinelli, Marius Clemens, Mats Kröger, Nils May, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn Richstein, Xi Sun
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent. Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 alone. In the second quarter, ...

08.04.2020
Blog Marcel Fratzscher

COVID-19 economic crisis: Europe needs more than one instrument

There are now several proposals for complementing the vigorous decision of the ECB to launch a mega ‘pandemic emergency purchase programme’ with fiscal and financial initiatives at the European level. These proposals sometimes overlap, which is a good sign of convergence. This column argues that they are also largely complementary to one another. Hence, it calls for a multi-instrument approach ...

06.04.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
Blog Marcel Fratzscher

A proposal for a Covid Credit Line

It is in the interest of every EU member state that countries in the Union hit by the coronavirus are able to take the necessary measures to control the pandemic and deal with the economic consequences without being constrained, and to do so very quickly. This column proposes a Covid credit line in the European Stability Mechanism, with allocation across member states proportionate to the severity ...

23.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
Statement

The ECB is sending a strong signal that now also governments need to act more decisively

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows:

12.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Gross Employment Effects in the Renewable Energy Industry in Germany: An Input–Output Analysis from 2000 to 2018

The purpose of this paper is to provide detailed insights into an approach to measure gross employment of the renewable energy (RES) industry in Germany in order to improve transparency and comparability. The method applied for the assessment of gross employment figures follows the input–output (IO) modeling approach and covers direct as well as indirect employment effects.All-in-all, four different ...

In: Sustainability 12 (2020), 15, 6163, 21 S. | Marlene O'Sullivan, Dietmar Edler
DIW Weekly Report 23 / 2020

Identifying Effective Combinations of Economic Policy Measures for the Coronavirus Recession in Europe

As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe in early 2020, the European Central Bank as well as national governments in the euro area enacted or announced numerous economic policy measures to counteract the severe economic consequences of the resulting lockdowns. In this paper, the immediate effect of the announcements on government bond and stock markets are estimated in a panel study. The ...

2020| Kerstin Bernoth, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Stefan Gebauer
Weitere Aufsätze

Hellas: From the Economic Crisis to the Corona Crisis Without a Pause

Greece cannot take on another decade of slow economic progress. Professor Alexander S. Kritikos in this article points out that the current economic break, as terrible as it also is for all economic life, is a second chance for Greece. Now is the time to break up structures and put the country on a new economic foundation. To make Greece more competitive and innovative, not only are investments needed ...

In: Business File 126 (2020), S. 22-23 | Alexander S. Kritikos
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