Topic Business Cycles

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893 results, from 1
Press Release

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels ...

15.04.2021
Workshop

What Economics and Economic History can learn from Memory Studies

How are individual and collective memories of extreme economic moments produced in a community? How do these memories translate into the political economy and shape the realm of possibility of macroeconomic policies? Why is some statistical data and economic policy represented more factual than other in the historical narration of national economies? How do some economic indicators become more...

30.03.2021| Ute Röschenthaler, Mainz University
Symposium

Towards a green and smart economy in Germany and the EU

The recovery from the corona virus pandemic provides a unique opportunity for transformation. But what does it take for the German and the European economy to thrive in the new, more digital, post-Covid world? How can we transform our economies while also limiting climate change and preparing for its impact? Will we manage to advance structural transformation while strengthening social cohesion? ...

27.01.2021| Ambroise Fayolle, Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Debora Revoltella, Marcel Fratzscher, Claudia Kemfert
Externe referierte Aufsätze

A Green COVID-19 Recovery of the EU Basic Materials Sector: Identifying Potentials, Barriers and Policy Solutions

This paper explores climate-friendly projects that could be part of the COVID-19 recovery while jump-starting the transition of the European basic materials industry. Findings from a literature review on technology options in advanced development stages for climate-friendly production, enhanced sorting, and recycling of steel, cement, aluminium, and plastics, are combined with insights from interviews ...

In: Climate Policy (2021), im Ersch. [online first: 2021-05-18] | Olga Chiappinelli, Timo Gerres, Karsten Neuhoff, Frederik Lettow, Heleen de Coninck, Balázs Felsmann, Eugénie Joltreau, Gauri Khandekar, Pedro Linares, Jörn Richstein, Aleksander Śniegocki, Jan Stede, Tomas Wyns, Cornelis Zandt, Lars Zetterberg
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy with Delayed Recovery; Industry in a Tight Spot: Editorial

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy: Uncertainty Remains despite Rebound: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
Diskussionspapiere 1952 / 2021

Optimism Gone Bad? The Persistent Effects of Traumatic Experiences on Investment Decisions

Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996- 2000 provide an optimal base to address this question, as it is known for its emotional character and is reputedly “the last time Germans invested in stocks.” Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) household survey data, I show that ...

2021| Chi Hyun Kim
SOEPpapers 1117 / 2021

Risk Preference and Entrepreneurial Investment at the Top of the Wealth Distribution

We present first evidence how individual risk preferences shape entrepreneurial investment among the very wealthy using novel survey data from the top of the wealth distribution, which have been added to the 2019 German Socio-economic Panel Study. The data include private wealth balance sheets, in particular the value of own private business assets, and a standard measure of risk tolerance. We find that ...

2021| Frank M. Fossen, Johannes König, Carsten Schröder
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

In: IMF Economic Review (2021), im Ersch. [online first: 2021-01-04] | Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
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