Topic Business Cycles

clear
850 results, from 1
Berlin Lunchtime Meeting

Accelerating Transformation: the Role of Investment in Germany and the EU to Support Recovery from the Pandemic Shock

Europe and Germany are being hit by a historic shock due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Economic activity is going to shrink substantially this year, with lockdown measures having led to sharp contractions in economic output, household spending, corporate investment and international trade. Will we see a strong and sustainable recovery? Investment is central to reboot economic activity and to...

18.06.2020| Debora Revoltella, Jakob von Weizsäcker
DIW focus

A Green New Deal after Corona: What We Can Learn from the Financial Crisis

Already after the financial crisis in 2008/2009 there was a debate on whether elements aiming at sustainable development can be part of the stimulus packages and support the recovery of the economy. Despite the instinct of policy makers to prioritise battle-tested policies during a crisis, significant levels and different types of climate-friendly components were integrated in the 2009 stimulus...

11.05.2020| Mats Kröger, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn Richstein, Olga Chiappinelli, Nils May, Marius Clemens, Xi Sun
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent. Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 alone. In the second quarter, ...

08.04.2020
Blog Marcel Fratzscher

COVID-19 economic crisis: Europe needs more than one instrument

There are now several proposals for complementing the vigorous decision of the ECB to launch a mega ‘pandemic emergency purchase programme’ with fiscal and financial initiatives at the European level. These proposals sometimes overlap, which is a good sign of convergence. This column argues that they are also largely complementary to one another. Hence, it calls for a multi-instrument approach ...

06.04.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
Blog Marcel Fratzscher

A proposal for a Covid Credit Line

It is in the interest of every EU member state that countries in the Union hit by the coronavirus are able to take the necessary measures to control the pandemic and deal with the economic consequences without being constrained, and to do so very quickly. This column proposes a Covid credit line in the European Stability Mechanism, with allocation across member states proportionate to the severity ...

23.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
Statement

The ECB is sending a strong signal that now also governments need to act more decisively

DIW president Marcel Fratzscher comments today's announcements by the ECB as follows:

12.03.2020| Marcel Fratzscher
SOEPpapers 1081 / 2020

Economic Downturns and Mental Wellbeing

We study the impact of the business cycle on mental wellbeing by linking rich German survey data to over a decade of detailed gross domestic product information. Endogeneity concerns are tackled using a shift-share instrumental variables approach in which exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations is estimated from regional variations in historical industry sector composition. Estimation results reveal ...

2020| Daniel Avdic, Sonja C. de New, Daniel A. Kamhöfer
Diskussionspapiere 1872 / 2020

Active, or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy in the Great Inflation

We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy regime as distinct, separately estimated, models. Rather, SMC enables us to estimate the DSGE model over its entire ...

2020| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
DIW focus 4 / 2020

A Green New Deal after Corona: What We Can Learn from the Financial Crisis

Already after the financial crisis in 2008/2009 there was a debate on whether elements aiming at sustainable development can be part of the stimulus packages and support the recovery of the economy. Despite the instinct of policy makers to prioritise battle-tested policies during a crisis, significant levels and different types of climate-friendly components were integrated in the 2009 stimulus packages ...

2020| Mats Kröger, Sun Xi, Olga Chiappinelli, Marius Clemens, Nils May, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn Richstein
DIW Weekly Report 12 / 2020

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously. ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth
850 results, from 1