Topic Business Cycles

Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2024: German Economy in Transition - Weak Momentum, Low Potential Growth

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a downward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being ...

Private consumption supporting the German economy in 2025 and 2026;

Economic outlook: consumer spending and growth strengthen the economy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024: Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards

According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1 percent. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3 percent. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4 percent (previously 1.5 percent). ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Experiencing Robust Growth; Germany’s Recovery Is Delayed Further

The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...

Decline in Nominal Construction Volume Expected for the First Time since the Financial Crisis; Residential Construction Situation Worsening

High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Industry Sputtering Globally while the German Economy Stagnates

The German economy continues to stagnate. After it appeared to finally be growing at the start of 2024, it experienced a slight setback in the second quarter. Although incomes are rising and inflation is now near the two-percent target, people in Germany are saving their money. As investments and exports faltered due to the sluggish industrial sector, the upturn has been delayed for the time being. ...

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Recovering Swiftly; German Economy Gaining Momentum

The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer ...

Joint Economic Forecast: Purchasing power returns ‒ political uncertainty high

According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private con­sumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics ...

DIW Berlin Economic Forecast: Forecast Ranges from Cloudy to Bright

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private consumption and overall economic output even declined slightly. Now the next challenge has arrived: In November 2023, ...