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Topic Business Cycles

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325 results, from 11
  • Press Release

    Joint Economic Forecast: Recovery Loses Momentum - Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

    The corona pandemic leaves substantial marks in the German economy and its impact is more persistent than assumed in spring. In their autumn report, the leading German economic research institutes have revised their economic outlook downwards by roughly one percentage point for both this and next year. They now expect gross domestic product to fall by 5.4 percent in 2020 (previously -4.2%) and to grow ...

  • Press Release

    Joint Economic Forecast: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

    The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent. Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 alone. In the second quarter, ...

  • Diskussionspapiere 1852 / 2020

    Inequality over the Business Cycle – The Role of Distributive Shocks

    This paper examines the dynamics of wealth and income inequality along the business cycle and assesses how they are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016 we find that on average income inequality - measured by the Gini coefficient - is countercyclical and also shows a significant association with the capital share. ...

    2020| Marius Clemens, Ulrich Eydam, Maik Heinemann
  • Externe Monographien

    Essays on Credit, Macroprudential Regulation, and Monetary Policy

    This dissertation consists of four essays that investigate the economic consequences of frictions in credit markets and the implications for macroprudential and monetary policies. The first essay addresses the following question: How do excessive debt holdings on borrower balance sheets impede economic activity? To address this question, we estimate a non-linear panel threshold model on a large-scale ...

    Berlin: Freie Univ. Berlin, FB Wirtschaftswiss., 2020, 197, LV S. | Stefan Gebauer
  • DIW Weekly Report 50 / 2020

    German Economy: Optimistic despite Decline as 2020 Ends: DIW Economic Outlook

    The coronavirus pandemic is once again slowing down the German economy: Following a strong and unexpected economic recovery over summer 2020, which compensated for large parts of the losses from the spring, the second wave has resulted in renewed restrictions affecting both social and economic life. Therefore, the German economy is likely to shrink again in the final quarter of 2020. If the second ...

    2020| Claus Michelsen, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Externe referierte Aufsätze

    Erholung verliert an Fahrt – Wirtschaft und Politik weiter im Zeichen der Pandemie

    Infolge der Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie ist die deutsche Wirtschaftsleistung in der ersten Jahreshälfte drastisch gesunken, vor allem in den Monaten März und April. Schon im Mai setzte eine kräftige Gegenbewegung ein, die sich in nahezu allen Branchen bis zum aktuellen Rand fortsetzte. Dieser Erholungsprozess dürfte an Fahrt verlieren. Die Institute erwarten daher nach einem Rückgang ...

    In: Wirtschaftsdienst 100 (2020), 11, S. 885-889 | Oliver Holtemöller, Stefan Kooths, Claus Michelsen, Torsten Schmidt, Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Press Release

    Joint economic forecast autumn 2019: Economy Cools Further – Industry in Recession

    Press release of the project group "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose": German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association, ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in cooperation with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), ...

  • Research Project

    Development of a macroeconomic forecasting model within the framework of the project "GET Uzbekistan"

    The project "German Economic Team Uzbekistan" ("GET Uzbekistan") supports the Uzbek government in stabilizing economic development and shaping the necessary economic reform processes. GET Uzbekistan is part of the regional project "High Level Government Advice on behalf of the BMWi", which also includes Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia.As a subcontractor of the BE Berlin Economics, DIW...

    Current Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy
  • Research Project

    Short-term economic effects of a 'Brexit' on the German economy

    The scientific report summarizes the state of the literature on the subject of short-term Brexit consequences and carries out quantitative simulations of the economic effects of a hard Brexit on the German economy using suitable macro-econometric methods.

    Completed Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy, Macroeconomics
  • Research Project

    Big Data in Macroeconomic Analysis: Texts as data source for the economic analysis - Potentials and possible applications

    The aim of this project is to use innovative approaches and heterogeneous data sources to advance research on forecasting economic development, predicting turning points and determining economic cycles. The first work package provides a comprehensive overview in the field of automated text analysis, the use of media data in the economic forecast and the methods of forecast evaluation, as well as...

    Completed Project| Forecasting and Economic Policy, Macroeconomics
325 results, from 11