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996 results, from 1
  • Press Release

    Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2024: Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards

    According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1 percent. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3 percent. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4 percent (previously 1.5 percent). ...

    27.03.2024
  • Diskussionspapiere 2080 / 2024

    Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity ...

    2024| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich, Jonathan Zinman
  • Diskussionspapiere 2078 / 2024

    Determinants of Stock Market Participation

    The low degree of stock market participation (SMP) is one of the big puzzles in finance. Numerous determinants have been proposed. We put these determinants into a structure that is derived from a standard static portfolio model. Then we discuss arguments put forward regarding specific SMP determinants and the empirical evidence that has been provided. The focus of our survey is on the identification ...

    2024| Lukas Menkhoff, Jannis Westermann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Agglomeration Economies: Different Effects on TFP in High-tech and Low-tech Industries

    We study the impact of agglomeration effects on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) for industry groups defined by technology intensity. This allows for non-uniform effects on firms depending on their technological level. We find that urban economies have the largest impact on firm productivity in high-technology industries, while they have no effectin low-technology industries. For firms in the ...

    In: Regional Studies (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-04-04] | Martin Gornig, Alexander Schiersch
  • DIW Weekly Report 13/14 / 2024

    Heat Transition: Municipalities Need Federal Support in Decommissioning Natural Gas Networks

    Large parts of the existing natural gas distribution networks must be decommissioned due to the decarbonization of the heat supply. However, there are neither regulatory nor economic incentives for the gas network operators to do so and delaying the decommissioning could be expensive for the remaining customers. This Weekly Report analyzes to what extent municipalities can partially decommission the ...

    2024| Isabell Braunger, Philipp Herpich, Franziska Holz, Julia Rechlitz, Claudia Kemfert
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Is Interest Rate Hiking a Recipe for Missing Several Goals of Monetary Policy—Beating Inflation, Preserving Financial Stability, and Keeping up Output Growth?

    levelsof all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. TheFED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interestrate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article weshow that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason,central banks’ goal of weakening demand for labor through ...

    In: Eurasian Economic Review (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-03-05] | Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler
  • Diskussionspapiere 2074 / 2024

    Persistent US Current Account Deficit: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment

    This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an important role for technology shocks originating in US multinational companies that have a strong foreign direct ...

    2024| Kaan Celebi, Werner Roeger, Paul J. J. Welfens
  • Diskussionspapiere 2071 / 2024

    Buyer Power and the Effect of Vertical Integration on Innovation

    Our article investigates the impact of vertical integration (without foreclosure) on innovation. We compare cases where either (i) two manufacturers or (ii) a manufacturer and a vertically integrated retailer invest. Then, the independent manufacturer( s) and the retailer bargain over non-linear contracts before selling to consumers. We show that vertical integration always increases the incentives ...

    2024| Claire Chambolle, Morgane Guignard
  • DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2024

    Decline in Nominal Construction Volume Expected for the First Time since the Financial Crisis; Residential Construction Situation Worsening

    High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...

    2024| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Diskussionspapiere 2067 / 2024

    The Non-linear Impact of Risk Tolerance on Entrepreneurial Profit and Business Survival

    Entrepreneurs tend to be risk tolerant but is more risk tolerance always better? In a sample of about 2,100 small businesses, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between risk tolerance and profitability. This relationship holds in a simple bilateral regression and also when we control for a large set of individual and business characteristics. Apparently, one major transmission goes from risk tolerance ...

    2024| Melanie Koch, Lukas Menkhoff
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