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Press Release
The German economy will continue to tread water in 2025. In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of just 0.1 per cent for the current year. For 2026, the institutes expect gross domestic product to increase by 1.3 per cent. In the short term, the new US trade policy and economic policy uncertainty are weighing on the German economy. ...
10.04.2025
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Infographic
20.03.2025
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Statement
Following yesterday's Bundestag elections, DIW President Marcel Fratzscher commented on the results and the challenges facing the new German government:
24.02.2025| Marcel Fratzscher
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In:
Empirical Economics
(2025), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-09-04]
| Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Nadine Leiner-Killinger, Teresa Schildmann
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DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2025
The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the economy. Structural adjustment processes and the erratic trade policy of the Trump administration are weighing ...
2025| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Nina Maria Brehl, Hella Engerer, Angelina Hackmann, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Laura Pagenhardt, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Hannah Magdalena Seidl, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Entrepreneurs tend to be risk tolerant but is higher risk tolerance always better? In a sample of about 2100 small businesses, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between risk tolerance and profitability. This relationship holds in a simple bilateral regression, and even after controlling for a large set of individual and business characteristics. Apparently, one major transmission goes from risk ...
In:
Small Business Economics
64 (2025), S. 1643–1670
| Melanie Koch, Lukas Menkhoff
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...
In:
Applied Economics Letters
32 (2025), 7, S. 945-950
| Vegard Høghaug Larsen, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Laura Pagenhardt
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Externe Monographien
This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level ...
Bruxelles:
European Parliament,
2025,
27 S.
(Monetary Dialogue Papers ; March 2025)
| Kerstin Bernoth
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DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2025
Real construction volume is expected to decline for the fifth year in a row: A decline of nearly four percent is expected for 2024 and it should fall by almost one percent in 2025. However, the construction industry may manage to reverse the trend in 2026, when real construction volume is projected to grow by two percent. However, this should not obscure the fact that the declines over the past years ...
2025| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we re-evaluate the famous Revisionism Debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their ...
In:
The Review of Economics and Statistics
(2025), im Ersch. [online first: 2023-03-15]
| Charlotte Bartels, Felix Kersting, Nikolaus Wolf