Topic Business Cycles

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1020 results, from 21
  • Externe Monographien

    Sovereign Haircuts: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

    We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 ...

    Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2024, 53 S.
    (NBER Working Paper Series ; 32599)
    | Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
  • Diskussionspapiere 2089 / 2024

    Friend, Not Foe - Energy Prices and European Monetary Policy

    This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB’s ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Third, we empirically document that, to optimally fulfill its primary mandate, ...

    2024| Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, Ben Schumann
  • DIW Weekly Report 24/25/26 / 2024

    DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Recovering Swiftly; German Economy Gaining Momentum

    The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer ...

    2024| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Nina Maria Brehl, Hella Engerer, Angelina Hackmann, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Laura Pagenhardt, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2080 / 2024

    Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity ...

    2024| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich, Jonathan Zinman
  • Diskussionspapiere 2078 / 2024

    Determinants of Stock Market Participation

    The low degree of stock market participation (SMP) is one of the big puzzles in finance. Numerous determinants have been proposed. We put these determinants into a structure that is derived from a standard static portfolio model. Then we discuss arguments put forward regarding specific SMP determinants and the empirical evidence that has been provided. The focus of our survey is on the identification ...

    2024| Lukas Menkhoff, Jannis Westermann
  • DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2024

    DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Experiencing Robust Growth; Germany’s Recovery Is Delayed Further

    The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...

    2024| Timm Bönke, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Violetta Kuzmova-Anand, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Agglomeration Economies: Different Effects on TFP in High-tech and Low-tech Industries

    We study the impact of agglomeration effects on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) for industry groups defined by technology intensity. This allows for non-uniform effects on firms depending on their technological level. We find that urban economies have the largest impact on firm productivity in high-technology industries, while they have no effectin low-technology industries. For firms in the ...

    In: Regional Studies 58 (2024), 11, S. 1999–2010 | Martin Gornig, Alexander Schiersch
  • DIW Weekly Report 13/14 / 2024

    Heat Transition: Municipalities Need Federal Support in Decommissioning Natural Gas Networks

    Large parts of the existing natural gas distribution networks must be decommissioned due to the decarbonization of the heat supply. However, there are neither regulatory nor economic incentives for the gas network operators to do so and delaying the decommissioning could be expensive for the remaining customers. This Weekly Report analyzes to what extent municipalities can partially decommission the ...

    2024| Isabell Braunger, Philipp Herpich, Franziska Holz, Julia Rechlitz, Claudia Kemfert
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Is Interest Rate Hiking a Recipe for Missing Several Goals of Monetary Policy—Beating Inflation, Preserving Financial Stability, and Keeping up Output Growth?

    levelsof all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. TheFED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interestrate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article weshow that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason,central banks’ goal of weakening demand for labor through ...

    In: Eurasian Economic Review 14 (2024), S. 235–254 | Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler
  • Diskussionspapiere 2074 / 2024

    Persistent US Current Account Deficit: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment

    This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an important role for technology shocks originating in US multinational companies that have a strong foreign direct ...

    2024| Kaan Celebi, Werner Roeger, Paul J. J. Welfens
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