Topic Business Cycles

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Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align actions to lower growth

The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. A complete normalisation of contact-intensive activities is not to be ex­pected in the short term. In addition, supply bottlenecks are ham­pering manufacturing for the time being. The German economy will reach nor­mal capacity utilisation in the course of 2022. In their autumn report, the leading economic research institutes ...

14.10.2021
Workshop

Masterclass – The Role of Memory in Economics and History Postponed to April 2022 Submissions welcome till January 2022

How are individual and collective memories of extreme economic moments produced in a community? How do these memories translate into the political economy and shape the realm of possibility of macroeconomic policies? Why is some statistical data and economic policy represented more factual than other in the historical narration of national economies? How do some economic indicators become more...

07.10.2021| Ute Röschenthaler, Mainz University
Press Release

German economy will first pick up speed in 2022

DIW Berlin forecasting experts are lowering their forecast for 2021 from 3.2 to 2.1 percent - Supply bottlenecks and material shortages are weighing on German industry - Private consumption remains restrained - With growth of just under five percent, the German economy will pick up speed in 2022 once bottlenecks have been overcome and infection rates have fallen on a sustained basis - Inflation no ...

16.09.2021
Press Release

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels ...

15.04.2021
Symposium

Towards a green and smart economy in Germany and the EU

The recovery from the corona virus pandemic provides a unique opportunity for transformation. But what does it take for the German and the European economy to thrive in the new, more digital, post-Covid world? How can we transform our economies while also limiting climate change and preparing for its impact? Will we manage to advance structural transformation while strengthening social cohesion? ...

27.01.2021| Ambroise Fayolle, Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Debora Revoltella, Marcel Fratzscher, Claudia Kemfert
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2021

Global Economy Returning to Its Recovery Course after Summer Setbacks: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were experiencing strict economic restrictions due to high case numbers. In some of these countries, the economy declined. ...

2021| Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Frederik Kurcz
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2021

German Economy Only Slowly Emerging from the Pandemic: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

The German economy is taking longer than expected to overcome the pandemic: It is likely to increase by only 2.1 percent in 2021 and capacities remain markedly underutilized. In addition, global supply bottlenecks are affecting German industry, resulting in stalled domestic production despite high demand. Following a profitable summer due to low case numbers and progress in the vaccination campaign, ...

2021| Marius Clemens, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
Diskussionspapiere 1974 / 2021

Wage Risk and Portfolio Choice: The Role of Correlated Returns

From standard portfolio-choice theory it is well-understood that background risk, overwhelmingly due to wage risk, is one of the central determinants of individuals’ portfolio composition: higher background risk reduces risky investments. However, if background risk is negatively correlated with financial market risk, higher background risk implies more risky investment. We quantify the influence of ...

2021| Johannes König, Maximilian Longmuir
Externe referierte Aufsätze

The Effect of Restructuring Electricity Distribution Systems on Firms' Persistent and Transient Efficiency

We evaluate the efficiency of electricity distribution operators (DSOs) as providers of local public infrastructure. In particular, we consider two types of efficiency, i.e., short-term (transient) and long-term (persistent). We apply the recently developed four-component stochastic frontier model, which allows identifying determinants of the two types of efficiency, after controlling for firm heterogeneity ...

In: The Energy Journal 42 (2021), 4, 20 S. | Astrid Cullmann, Oleg Badunenko, Subal C. Kumbhakar, Maria Nieswand
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