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990 results, from 21
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Inequality over the Business Cycle: The Role of Distributive Shocks

    This paper examines how wealth and income inequality dynamics are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution over the business cycle. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016, although inequality is, on average countercyclical and significantly associated with the capital share, one-third of the countries display a pro- or noncyclical relationship. To analyze ...

    In: Macroeconomic Dynamics 27 (2023), 3, S. 571-600 | Marius Clemens, Ulrich Eydam, Maik Heinemann
  • DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2023

    DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Experiencing Robust Growth; Germany’s Recovery Is Delayed Further

    The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...

    2023| Timm Bönke, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Violetta Kuzmova-Anand, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Long Reach of Class Origin on Financial Investments and Net Worth

    In this study, we argue that parents’ class position may influence the type and timing of their offspring's investments in financial assets. These investments may facilitate net worth accumulation beyond direct transfers, contributing to the intergenerational reproduction of social positions. We test these expectations using retrospective life history and prospective panel data for 14 countries from ...

    In: Acta Sociologica 66 (2023), 2, S. 210-230 | Philipp M. Lersch, Olaf Groh-Samberg
  • Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 2 / 2023

    Dimensions and Determinants of Inflation Anchoring

    Die vorliegende Studie analysiert Dimensionen und Determinanten von umfragebasierten Maßen zur Verankerung von Inflationserwartungen. Wir analysieren 82 Volkswirtschaften über einen Zeitraum von 1995 bis 2022 und zeigen, dass verschiedene Dimensionen der Inflationsverankerung grundsätzlich stark korreliert sind; die Standardabweichung der Inflationsvorhersagen zeigt jedoch zum Teil eine andere Dynamik. ...

    2023| Joscha Beckmann, Robert L. Czudaj
  • Diskussionspapiere 2057 / 2023

    Global Risk and the Dollar

    The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

    2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2058 / 2023

    Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle

    We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements—dollar trinity—rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows ...

    2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

    We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. ...

    In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 15 (2023), 4, S. 217–248 | Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
  • DIW Weekly Report 45-49 / 2023

    Energy and Climate Scenarios Paradoxically Assume Considerable Nuclear Energy Growth

    Most climate and energy scenarios created by international organizations and researchers include a considerable expansion of nuclear energy. In the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, for example, nuclear energy increases from a current 3,000 terawatt hours on average to over 6,000 terawatt hours in 2050 and to over 12,000 terawatt hours in 2100. This doubling and quadrupling of nuclear energy production ...

    2023| Christian von Hirschhausen, Björn Steigerwald, Franziska Hoffart, Claudia Kemfert, Jens Weibezahn, Alexander Wimmers
  • DIW Weekly Report 36/37 / 2023

    German Economy Currently Scarcely Making Headway

    Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private consumption is not driving the German economy and is likely to develop in the second half of 2023 only haltingly. ...

    2023| Timm Bönke, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rulliere, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann, Jana Wittich
  • DIW Weekly Report 34/35 / 2023

    Meeting Climate Targets Can Only Spur on Economic Growth with the Right Combination of Measures

    Reducing carbon emissions is essential to meeting climate targets. What is unclear, however, is which measures are required to do so and what impact they would have on economic growth. In this Weekly Report, a macroeconomic model is used to observe four scenarios in comparison to a baseline scenario without emissions reduction. It is analyzed which effects different measures, such as technological ...

    2023| Timm Bönke, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Werner Roeger
990 results, from 21
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