Topic Business Cycles

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435 results, from 1
Press Release

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels ...

15.04.2021
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

In: IMF Economic Review (2021), im Ersch. [online first: 2021-01-04] | Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

German Economy Stuck in Stop-Go Situation: Editorial

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

Global Economy: USA and China Leading the Way, Europe Lagging Behind: DIW Economic Outlook Spring 2021

The resurgence of the pandemic and renewed lockdowns have slowed the recovery of the global economy, but the overall losses will be less severe than after the first coronavirus wave in spring 2020. Industry in particular continues to develop well. In contrast, retail trade and personal services have been heavily affected, especially in hard-hit regions such as Europe. However, the fiscal stimulus cushions ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

German Economy between Lockdowns and Normality: DIW Economic Outlook Spring 2021

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Recovery Loses Momentum - Economy and Politics Still Shaped by the Pandemic

The corona pandemic leaves substantial marks in the German economy and its impact is more persistent than assumed in spring. In their autumn report, the leading German economic research institutes have revised their economic outlook downwards by roughly one percentage point for both this and next year. They now expect gross domestic product to fall by 5.4 percent in 2020 (previously -4.2%) and to grow ...

14.10.2020
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Economy in Shock – Fiscal Policy to Counteract

The coronavirus pandemic is triggering a severe recession in Germany. Economic output will shrink by 4.2 percent this year. This is what the leading economics research institutes expect in their spring report. For next year, they are forecasting a recovery and growth of 5.8 percent. Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 alone. In the second quarter, ...

08.04.2020
DIW Weekly Report 52/53 / 2020

Fiscal Rules Mitigate Economic Setbacks during Crises

91 countries around the world have established fiscal rules to limit national debt and/or budget deficits. Using data from previous natural disasters, this report investigates how these fiscal rules affect overall economic development following a crisis. The results show countries with fiscal rules fare better after such shocks than those without. GDP, private consumption, and investments develop markedly ...

2020| Alexander Kriwoluzky, Laura Pagenhardt, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 50 / 2020

Global Economy: Recovery Slowing Down: DIW Economic Outlook

The global economy recovered more quickly than expected in the third quarter of 2020. Following the coronavirus-related slumps, economic output increased by seven percent. A decrease in infection rates and thus an easing of containment measures contributed to re-normalizing production processes and trade. Private households also began demanding more consumer goods again, especially personal services. ...

2020| Claus Michelsen, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 50 / 2020

Second Coronavirus Wave Affecting German Economy and Halting Recovery: Editorial

2020| Claus Michelsen, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt, Sandra Pasch
435 results, from 1
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