Topic Business Cycles

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443 results, from 1
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align actions to lower growth

The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. A complete normalisation of contact-intensive activities is not to be ex­pected in the short term. In addition, supply bottlenecks are ham­pering manufacturing for the time being. The German economy will reach nor­mal capacity utilisation in the course of 2022. In their autumn report, the leading economic research institutes ...

14.10.2021
Press Release

German economy will first pick up speed in 2022

DIW Berlin forecasting experts are lowering their forecast for 2021 from 3.2 to 2.1 percent - Supply bottlenecks and material shortages are weighing on German industry - Private consumption remains restrained - With growth of just under five percent, the German economy will pick up speed in 2022 once bottlenecks have been overcome and infection rates have fallen on a sustained basis - Inflation no ...

16.09.2021
Press Release

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels ...

15.04.2021
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2021

German Economy Only Slowly Emerging from the Pandemic: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

The German economy is taking longer than expected to overcome the pandemic: It is likely to increase by only 2.1 percent in 2021 and capacities remain markedly underutilized. In addition, global supply bottlenecks are affecting German industry, resulting in stalled domestic production despite high demand. Following a profitable summer due to low case numbers and progress in the vaccination campaign, ...

2021| Marius Clemens, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2021

Global Economy Returning to Its Recovery Course after Summer Setbacks: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were experiencing strict economic restrictions due to high case numbers. In some of these countries, the economy declined. ...

2021| Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Frederik Kurcz
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

In: IMF Economic Review 69 (2021), 2, S. 391–426 | Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy: Uncertainty Remains despite Rebound: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy with Delayed Recovery; Industry in a Tight Spot: Editorial

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt, Sandra Pasch
Diskussionspapiere 1954 / 2021

Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after ...

2021| Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
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