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Topic Monetary Policy

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540 results, from 1
  • Statement

    ECB failed to clearly communicate the need to cut interest rates this year

    DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the results of today's meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB:

    25.01.2024| Marcel Fratzscher
  • DIW Weekly Report 10/11 / 2024

    DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Global Economy Experiencing Robust Growth; Germany’s Recovery Is Delayed Further

    The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early ...

    2024| Timm Bönke, Guido Baldi, Hella Engerer, Pia Hüttl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Violetta Kuzmova-Anand, Theresa Neef, Laura Pagenhardt, Werner Roeger, Marie Rullière, Jan-Christopher Scherer, Teresa Schildmann, Ruben Staffa, Kristin Trautmann
  • Diskussionspapiere 2075 / 2024

    Financial Repression in General Equilibrium: The Case of the United States, 1948–1974

    Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...

    2024| Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Alexander Scheer
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany

    We investigate how internal distribution motives can affect the implementation of an important macroeconomic policy: capital controls. To do this, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations, which took place under strict capital controls in 1930s Germany, providing a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, ...

    In: Journal of Political Economy 132 (2024), 6, im Ersch. | Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Is Interest Rate Hiking a Recipe for Missing Several Goals of Monetary Policy—Beating Inflation, Preserving Financial Stability, and Keeping up Output Growth?

    levelsof all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. TheFED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interestrate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article weshow that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason,central banks’ goal of weakening demand for labor through ...

    In: Eurasian Economic Review (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-03-05] | Dorothea Schäfer, Willi Semmler
  • Diskussionspapiere 2080 / 2024

    Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity ...

    2024| Oliver Pfäuti, Fabian Seyrich, Jonathan Zinman
  • Diskussionspapiere 2081 / 2024

    Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural VARs: Theory and Bayesian Inference

    We consider structural vector autoregressions identified through stochastic volatility. Our focus is on whether a particular structural shock is identified by heteroskedasticity without the need to impose any sign or exclusion restrictions. Three contributions emerge from our exercise: (i) a set of conditions under which the matrix containing structural parameters is partially or globally unique; (ii) ...

    2024| Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak
  • Diskussionspapiere 2084 / 2024

    Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?

    Exploiting the heteroscedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an ...

    2024| Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Where Do They Care? The ECB in the Media and Inflation Expectations

    This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...

    In: Applied Economics Letters (2024), im Ersch. [Online first: 2023-12-13] | Vegard Høghaug Larsen, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Laura Pagenhardt
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Global Risk and the Dollar

    The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...

    In: Journal of Monetary Economics (2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-01-11] | Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
540 results, from 1
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