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Statement
DIW president Marcel Fratzscher on the results of today's meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB:
25.01.2024| Marcel Fratzscher
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
(2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-01-11]
| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...
In:
Applied Economics Letters
(2024), im Ersch. [Online first: 2023-12-13]
| Vegard Høghaug Larsen, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Laura Pagenhardt
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Diskussionspapiere 2075 / 2024
Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...
2024| Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Alexander Scheer
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We investigate how internal distribution motives can affect the implementation of an important macroeconomic policy: capital controls. To do this, we study one of history’s largest debt repatriations, which took place under strict capital controls in 1930s Germany, providing a wealth of quantitative and historical evidence. We show that the authorities kept private repatriations under strict control, ...
In:
Journal of Political Economy
(2024), im Ersch.
| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We investigate the role of monetary policy in stock price misalignments and explore whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing as suggested by the proponents of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy. Decomposing stock prices into expected excess dividends, an equity risk premium, and a mispricing component, we find that prices fall more strongly in response to an increase in the ...
In:
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
(2024) im Ersch. [Online first: 2023-09-25]
| Kerstin Bernoth, Benjamin Beckers
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Statement
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided today to keep the key interest rate constant. Here is a statement from Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin):
14.12.2023| Marcel Fratzscher
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SOEP Brown Bag Seminar
Wealth transfer taxes are important instruments to counter increasing wealth inequality. Yet, inter-generational business transfers, whose distribution is particularly concentrated at the top, are inherently difficult to tax. This is due to preferential tax treatments in many countries and sophisticated tax avoidance strategies by business owners. We analyze how business transfers react to...
29.11.2023| Richard Winter, University of Mannheim
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Cluster-Seminar Öffentliche Finanzen und Lebenslagen
Stock market participation jumped upwards in Germany in the year 2020 by about 25%. A major cause for this was the enforced use of remote work. We show this by repeating a benchmark study with demanding data requests and adding remote work to the explanatory variables. Moreover, we implement an instrumental variables estimation based on commuting distance and work-from- home capacity. The...
19.07.2023| Lorenz Meister
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Event
Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion.
Key findings include:
Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...
14.06.2023| Asonuma Tamon, Josefin Meyer